Gale Warning 82, NWS Fairbanks, AK

056 
FZAK69 PAFG 012229
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-021330-
229 PM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER SIBERIA. 1010 MB LOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND IN THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
20 KT. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO BARROW TO POINT
HOPE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 100 MILES WEST OF BANKS ISLAND TO
THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA IN CANADA AT 4 PM FRI.

$$

PKZ500-021330-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
229 PM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-021330-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
229 PM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-021330-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
229 PM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

TF/SDB NOV 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
101 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND
120 HOURS BEFORE MAJOR DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 512DAM CLOSED LOW IS ANCHORED IN THE BASE
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AS A 501DAM
CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A 511DAM
CLOSED LOW. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF ALASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE REMAINS OVER CHUKOTKA
WITH A 560DAM CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THE RIDGE WILL RECEDE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES -12C TO -16C OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN A GOOD SHOT OF RE ENFORCING COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC
PLAIN WITH SOME OF IT SEEPING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

SURFACE...A 1018MB LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE 996MB LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND TODAY. THE 996MB LOW WILL THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 975MB LOW
NEAR 50N 150W BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 975MB LOW THEN MOVES TO 55N
148W BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 953MB AND TO MIDDLETON ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING AT 582MB. A 1045MB HIGH OVER CHUKOTKA WILL RECEDE SLIGHTLY
TODAY THROUGH A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A
1007MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL PUSH SOUTH TO ABOUT 200 NM
NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE
COAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING
CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR WITH SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SOME FLURRIES
FURTHER WEST. LOCALLY ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF DOT LAKE.

ARCTIC COAST...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BREAK DOWN
EARLY THURSDAY AS VIGOROUS 1008MB LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. STRATOCUMULOUS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE COAST TONIGHT BRINGING FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY MIDDAY. SOME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW BUT AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HIGH
SURF ISSUES. BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH...BUT EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST EVENTUALLY MOVING
INLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST...PRETTY QUIET TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AS LOW IN THE ARCTIC SWINGS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

INTERIOR...GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE GULF DROPS SOUTH. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS AND NORTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES WILL SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HARD
TO FORECAST AS THEY DRIFT AROUND UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. ONLY
THING FOR CERTAIN IS NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE EAST OF DOT LAKE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245-PKZ500-PKZ505-PKZ510.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

SDB OCT 12