Gale Warning 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

659 
FZAK51 PAFG 032213
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-041315-
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA AND THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH TUESDAY. A 985 MB LOW OVER
NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY MORNING
WEAKENING TO 992 MB.

$$

PKZ225-041315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-041315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-041315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-041315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-041315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
213 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15KT BY AROUND NOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

CF/SDB SEP 12

476 
FZAK51 PAFG 040938
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-050045-
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1017 MB HIGH 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THIS EVENING. A
990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 980 MB 250 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT BY 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ225-050045-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SE DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER
NOON. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ230-050045-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ235-050045-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ240-050045-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER NOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-050045-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
138 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

JK/CB SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...
AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A PARADE OF
SHORT WAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE
SERIES WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT
WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS IN AND NEAR ALASKA
RANGE PASSES.

SURFACE...
A 982 MB LOW OVER KUSKOKWIM BAY AT 10 PM SUNDAY WILL MOVE
TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY 10 AM TUESDAY FILLING TO AROUND 990
MB...THEN BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE NEXT
INCOMING LOW. A 992 MB LOW EAST OF KOMANDORSKI ISLAND IN THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT 10 PM SUNDAY WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PROGGED
POSITION FOR 4 PM TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT 975 MB. THE LOW WILL
REACH ITS LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE...AROUND 970 MB...LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CURVE NORTHWARD UP THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...FILLING TO AROUND 985 MB OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY
4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...
THE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST
COAST...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVER
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ARCTIC ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS...MOSTLY IN THE RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH. THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY DRY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE BEING PREDOMINANT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE...BUT THESE WOULD BE OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE.

WINDS IN AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
6 HOURS...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL REDEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH LIKELY
IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A STRONG LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA EARLY THIS WEEK MOVING INTO THE SW
MAINLAND TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE BY
THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WED EVENING. A STRONG CHINOOK EVENT
FOR THE AK RANGE SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY WED EVENING AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
AND AREAS OF RAIN TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AK. BY NEXT WEEKEND 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW 0C ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN AK AND AS COLD AS -10C
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WHERE SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CB

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

RF/CB SEP 12