Gale Warning 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

278 
FZAK69 PAFG 162148
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-171300-
148 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A 970 MB
LOW IN BRISTOL BAY SUN AM WILL MOVE TO POINT HOPE AS A 987 MB LOW
BY 4PM MON THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
PRUDHOE BAY MON NIGHT AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW AS A
980 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN DRIFT WEST.

$$

PKZ500-171300-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
148 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT BECOMING NE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FOG
IN THE MORNING. RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 KT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-171300-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
148 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 
65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 KT DIMINISHING TO
NORTHEAST 30 KT EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ510-171300-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
148 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON...E WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO SE
30 KT MON PM. SEAS 18 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

TF/SDB SEP 12

199 
FZAK69 PAFG 171203
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
403 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-180030-
403 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 978 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO KIVALINA
AS A 988 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A 982 MB LOW
NEAR PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW AS A 978
MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 989 MB LOW BY 4PM TUE.


$$

PKZ500-180030-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
403 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FOG. RAIN. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-180030-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
403 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-180030-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
403 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW  350 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO WEST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND BY 6AM MON. RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
WILL CENTERED OVER THE SEWARD PEN BY 12Z. STRONG RIDGE ALONG ABOUT
130W WILL BE TEMPORARILY KNOCKED DOWN AS TROF WITH THE WRN LOW
MOVES THRU...BUT REBUILDS BY TUE PM.

SFC...987MB LOW EAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR BETHEL AND
DEEPEN TO 975MB AT 4PM SUN...THENCE TO NW OF KOTZEBUE BY 4AM MON.
A SECONDARY CENTER WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND
THE ROTATE WWD UNDER THE LOW ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL
FRACTURE SUN AM AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA...TO BE NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY 4AM MON.

IN THE MID RANGE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BASIC PATTERN WITH
BIG RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND AND ALONG ALONG ABOUT
175W...WITH FAST SW FLOW IN BETWEEN. DIFFS IN SHORTWAVE TIMING
MAKE FOR DRAMATIC DIFFS IN TEMP/PCPN AT SPECIFIC PLACE/TIMES. THESE
DIFFS ARE NOT RESOLVABLE AT THIS REMOVE BUT A FAST CHANGING
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW NORTH OF BARROW WILL SOON BE TOO FAR WEST TO
INFLUENCE EVEN THE WRN ZONES...WITH MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT AND SFC WINDS TURNING MORE ELY.

WEST COAST...STORM SURGE GUIDANCE HAS LARGE PUSH OF WATER OUT OF
ERN NORTON SOUND ON THE FRONT END OF THE STORM...HAS MUCH AS -5.0
FEET AT UNALAKLEET ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE WLY WINDS NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
LONG OR STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE COASTAL PROBLEMS.

INTERIOR...HIGHEST IMPACT WX WILL BE ALASKA RANGE AND VCNTY
WINDS...WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGAN THE CLIMB. FRACTURING OF THE OCCLUSION
AND RAPID INTRUSION OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO SHARPLY LIMIT PRECIP
PROSPECTS EAST OF 150W. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
EAST AS FAIRBANKS. COOL AIR SLOSHING BACK EWD WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS BUT MAY NOT BE MUCH PRECIP AT THAT POINT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

RT SEP 12