Small Craft Advisory 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

106 
FZAK51 PAFC 291226
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A 982 MB LOW 120 NM SE OF SAND POINT SUN
AFTERNOON MOVES 80 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 977 MB MON AFTERNOON...
THEN MOVES TO 45 NM SW OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 979 MB LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-300300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-300300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT NEAT WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-300300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-300300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ141-300300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT JAN 28 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY NASTY WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BRUTAL COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AKPEN AND ALEUTIANS. THIS ALL STEMS FROM A PERSISTENT COLD AIRMASS
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE CURRENT STORM TRACK IS
TAKING DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND...EITHER
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OR TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

A LARGE ANCHOR LOW IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ALL ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
ZERO VISIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACCELERATING THE WINDS WHICH
COUPLED WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS IS PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IN PARTICULAR IS EXPERIENCING VERY HARSH
CONDITIONS WITH -65 WIND CHILL AT TIMES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE MOST TAME WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE CAN BE FOUND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL BUT ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING THE EXTREME
COLD OR LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL HEAD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TRAPPING THE
COLD AIR FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. SOUTHCENTRAL COULD SEE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INVADING WILL
LIKELY HINDER SOME LOCATIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED TO THE COAST UNTIL A TRIPLE
POINT LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PRECIP TYPE FOR KODIAK SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ANY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING BECAUSE OF THE FROZEN GROUND AND
MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW PACK.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...
THE CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE VERY COLD
AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL NOT MAKE
TOO MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER BRISTOL
BAY WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS RESULTING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH OR SNOW TO BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES. WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL RETURN EARLY THIS WEEK.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN OUR DOMAIN WILL CONTINUE OUT WEST.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS
THE MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUES TO
FEED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN...SEVERAL SMALL LOWS WILL
DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THESE SMALLER LOWS
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AS THEY RAPIDLY SPIN UP AND MOVE ALONG THE
CHAIN. OVERALL...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
BERING SEA BY MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR SHOWERS PREVAILING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 195
         WIND CHILL WARNING 155
MARINE...GALES 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 12