Small Craft Advisory 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

019 
FZAK51 PAFC 042315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

935 
FZAK51 PAFC 051158
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN THE PRIBILOFS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WHICH ARE
THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON JELAWAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO COLDER AIR
ALOFT TONIGHT OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRENGTHEN TO 971 MB BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT NEARS THE BERING STRAIT
REGION.

MEANWHILE...A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL PUSH EAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ALL MOVE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS NORTH TO THE
BERING STRAIT REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA. A
SECOND WAVE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN RUSSIA
WILL PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER TYPHOON TO DIG A LARGE AND
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL KEEP A BARRIER JET IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALSO
HELP IN KEEPING STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ANCHORAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING RATHER STAGNANT...DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WITH RAIN MAINLY OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS IN THE BERING
SEA THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL REMAIN WITH WINDS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW STRONGLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH
EAST-WEST TERRAIN GAPS ALONG THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN CHAINS. THE OTHER
CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM GOODNEWS BAY NORTH AS AN INTENSE
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NORTH JUST ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY. WILL BE UPGRADING THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH A PROJECTED STORM
SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SPRING TIDE LEVELS PEAKING MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
THE REGION...FIRST WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW TONIGHT MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE BERING...AND THEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST AS THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER TYPHOON INTERACT WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC BASIN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG AND
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS
DIGS SOUTH FROM THE BERING SEA WELL SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
RESULT WILL BE SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE STATE MAINLY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL...WITH MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...155 161
MARINE...GALES...120 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179
         STORMS...180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC OCT 12