Small Craft Advisory 545, NWS Anchorage, AK

462 
FZAK51 PAFC 042317
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1009 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1002 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO
AROUND 230 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1005 MB MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS E...SEAS 9 FT. W OF 
THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS E...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS ONE LOW
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
WHICH IS PROVIDING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH SOME PLEASANT WEATHER.
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AND NOT CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE REGARDING A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ITS TRANSITION TO THE GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE LOW
TO THE WEST...THE NAM IS STAYING FIRM WITH ITS EASTERN LOCATION. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO NOT DISPLAYING GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN...NOW
SHIFTING THE LOW FARTHER WEST. SO NOW THE 12Z GFS IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST BASED OF THE PREVIOUS
ECMWF...WHICH IS A FAIR COMPROMISE OF ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.
AGAIN...GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AND VERY POOR
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE 24-72 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHORT WAVE RIDGE NOW PROVIDING MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REGION...RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS NOW LOOKING LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COOK INLET NORTHWARD INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR A
PERIOD. THIS STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF SHOULD PROVIDE SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THAT IS OF COURSE ASSUMING WE CAN TRUST THE INCONSISTENT
MODELS THAT FAR OUT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BERING LOW IS PUSHING INLAND OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW HAS BROUGHT THE LOW CLOUDS INLAND OVER THE DELTA. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
RAPIDLY MOVES ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WITH THE USUAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE RIDGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A NEW LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE EAST AND
MAKE ITS WAY TO SOUTH OF KODIAK BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOW ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD EAST TO DOMINATE THE
REST OF THE BERING BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE OUT EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REST OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE STATE STRETCHING DOWN OVER
THE GULF WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE BRINGING RAIN TO AREAS ALL
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB/SA AUG 12