Small Craft Advisory 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

785 
FZAK52 PAFC 120643 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1042 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

UPDATED ZONES 160 165 180 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
A 1003 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL WEAKEN TO 1006 MB 230 NM
NORTHWEST OF ATTU TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-121500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
1042 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-121500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
1042 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG N OF PORT
MOLLER.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-121500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
1042 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-121500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-121500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
1042 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-121500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

279 
FZAK52 PAFC 121130
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 165 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU DRIFTS WEST AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 AM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON ALL MAJOR FEATURES. A GFS/EC BLEND
WAS PREFERRED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE YUKON TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT
THE SAME TIME...AND THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF WILL GET
PUSHED INTO WESTERN CANADA. IN THE MEANTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN FIRM OVER THE EASTERN BERING...KEEPING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS CLOSE TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE COOK INLET REGION TODAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS TO A PERIOD OF
STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ANCHORAGE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND BRING
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT THEN BEGIN TO
COOL LATER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS SOUTH AND STRENGTHENS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE. EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVE SOUTH
FROM THE INTERIOR TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE WET SIDE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND.
WEDNESDAY BEARS CLOSE WATCHING FOR ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD POTENTIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAY FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL IN SOME TIME...AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS ANCHORAGE
AND THE KENAI PENINSULA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER CLOSER TO THE ALASKA RANGE
EXTENDING SOUTH TO INTERIOR AREAS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAY MAKE THIS AREA ESPECIALLY PRONE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...

A STAGNANT PERIOD WEATHERWISE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE A DYING
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
BE ONE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC JUN 12