Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS Anchorage, AK

727 
FZAK51 PAFC 030018
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF HOMER WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 1000 MB SAT AFTERNOON THEN TO AROUND 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1006 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. NEAR WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT
OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF  THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 25 KT. S OF DANGEROUS
CAPE...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W
WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU MAR 1 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAY AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
CANADA. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE OLD SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. A TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
BERING SEA.

SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER BRISTOL BAY, KODIAK ISLAND,
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA, EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST
BERING THOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT.
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SNOW AND WINDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN IT WILL
BECOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS THE LOW
WEAKENS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND BRISTOL BAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...SNOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
THE PRIBILOFS WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY EVENING WILL DISSIPATE INTO A
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF SUNDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST TO
LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING AND THROUGH UNIMAK ISLAND
MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 12