High Wind Watch 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

990 
WWAK72 PAFC 180058
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM AKST MON DEC 17 2012

AKZ181-181500-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0019.121218T0900Z-121219T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0027.121218T0600Z-121219T0300Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
358 PM AKST MON DEC 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
AKST TUESDAY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN AREAS OF CHANNELED 
  TERRAIN. 

* WIND...SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING AND
  REACH PEAK INTENSITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE DEBRIS AND UNSECURED ITEMS MAY BLOW AROUND AND 
  BECOME DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES. TRAVEL MAY BE 
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
555 AM AKST MON DEC 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW YIELDING PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH FAVORED
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND HAS REACHED THE COAST...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE BERING AS A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN HANDLING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE MAIN FEATURE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
AND INTENSIFY AS IT SKIRTS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...MOVING ACROSS THE
AKPEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND AS A SUB 975 MB LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
STRONG GAP WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TODAY AS THE GULF LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND DISSIPATES WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK FROM THE WEST. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK...AREAS ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF.
OTHERWISE...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL
BAY TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE BERING FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY. THE AKPEN WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH
OR LESS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE AKPEN AND
WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AS IT RAPIDLY TRAVERSES THE
CHAIN AND INTENSIFIES. SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
A STRONG 170 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DESPITE SOME DISCREPANCIES...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A DEEP LOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING /WESTERN MAINLAND BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE EXTENDED TERM FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 171
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 132 138 150 155 170
         GALE WARNING...120 121 125 126 127 129 140 160 165 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...120 121 125 126 127 128 129
                                        130 138 140 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB DEC 12