High Wind Watch 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

648 
WWAK71 PAFC 281738
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
838 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

AKZ101-282100-
/X.NEW.PAFC.FG.Y.0007.121128T1738Z-121128T2100Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
838 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON TODAY.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW VISIBILITIES CAN CAUSE VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR
HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

AKZ111-290645-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0016.121129T1800Z-121130T1500Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
838 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* LOCATION...MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST WINDS 
  THROUGH PALMER AND WASILLA. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 65 TO 
  80 MPH. 

* TIMING...WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AROUND MID 
  MORNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING 
  FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

597 
WWAK71 PAFC 281751 CCA
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
851 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

AKZ101-282100-
/X.NEW.PAFC.FG.Y.0007.121128T1751Z-121128T2100Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
851 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON TODAY.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW VISIBILITIES CAN CAUSE VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR
HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

AKZ111-290715-
/X.COR.PAFC.HW.A.0016.121129T1800Z-121130T1500Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
851 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* LOCATION...MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST WINDS 
  THROUGH PALMER AND WASILLA. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 65 TO 
  80 MPH. 

* TIMING...WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AROUND MID 
  MORNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING 
  FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

725 
WWAK71 PAFC 281923
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1023 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

AKZ101-282030-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-121128T2100Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
1023 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. 


$$

AKZ111-290830-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0016.121129T1800Z-121130T1500Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
1023 AM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* LOCATION...MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST WINDS 
  THROUGH PALMER AND WASILLA. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 65 TO 
  80 MPH. 

* TIMING...WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AROUND MID 
  MORNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING 
  FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

076 
WWAK71 PAFC 290111
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
411 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

AKZ111-291430-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0016.121129T1800Z-121130T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0026.121129T2100Z-121201T0000Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
411 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 3 PM AKST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 3 PM AKST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH
  WASILLA AND PALMER.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND NOON
  THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER.
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKST TUE NOV 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ON THE MORNING WEATHER MAP IS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DEPARTED THE BERING SEA AND IS NOW RAPIDLY
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. YET ANOTHER RIDGE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...THE
REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONT YESTERDAY IN THE GULF ARE NOW BRINGING
LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
CENTRAL GULF. COLD OUTFLOW/OFFSHORE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP
AS THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS BEGINS ANEW. OUT WEST...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND DUTCH HARBOR AREAS TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS THE BERING RIDGE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED...ALL MODELS BRING A SMALL BUT POTENT
SHORTWAVE DOWN THE FRONT/EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN GEM
MODELS ARE ALSO FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TOGETHER...WHILE THE 12Z AND
18Z NAM ARE ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. GIVEN
THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A PREFERENCE AWAY FROM THE NAM SOLUTION FOR
THIS FEATURE. EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE THE MODEL DISCREPANCY WAS MUCH
LESS IMPACTFUL...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE DESCENDING ACROSS ALL OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE NAM MODEL WAS THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS
SUPERIOR HANDLING OF UPCOMING STRONG WINDS INTERACTING WITH THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE COASTLINE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USUAL GAP FLOW AREAS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GET STRONGER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AN INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER...AND WILL HELP BUMP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE ENTRENCHED
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL INSULATE THE SURFACE
FROM THE STRONG WINDS BEFORE ERODING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS POINT THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVED PAST...AND
THUS EVEN AREAS THAT DO GET GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH
A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR THE MUCH STRONGER WIND EVENT ARRIVING TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...WINDS IN THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE OVER 60 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN HIGHER WINDS. UNLIKE THE WIND EVENT LAST WEEK...THE PATTERN THIS
WEEK FEATURES MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS AND THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATEST PROJECTIONS.

SOUTHWEST...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETREATING BERING SEA WEATHER
FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO PULL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR COLD AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THIS POINT

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE PRIBILOFS
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL OF THE BERING SEA. A MODERATE FRONT
CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE NO
SUCCESS MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE RIDGE PREVENTS ANY
MOVEMENT...THUS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT COLD DRY AND LOCALLY WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THE BERING RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS EVOLUTION IS LOW AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A KNOWN BIAS TO
BREAK DOWN BLOCKING RIDGES PREMATURELY. IN OTHER WORDS...THE STATE
REMAINS LOCKED IN A COLD AND DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 7-10
DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 128 132 150 155 160 170 171 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 126 127
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON NOV 12