Gale Warning 469, NWS Anchorage, AK

821 
FZAK52 PAFC 272331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1003 MB LOW 260 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 50 NM WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND A 995 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES
INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT
EXCEPT 7 FT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
220 PM AKDT THU JUL 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER-LVL LOW REMAINS CENTERED AROUND 350 MILES SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE POKES ACROSS THE ALCAN
BORDER FROM YUKON TERRITORY INTO THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN...
THOUGH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ROTATING UP FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE TO THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO TRAVERSING
SW AK WITH A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN. AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING IS
ALLOWING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ALASKA/CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS SEEING FAIR WEATHER AS IT IS
CENTERED IN A WEAK COL AREA BETWEEN FORCING FEATURES. ELSEWHERE...A
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMED THIS MORNING NEAR CHIGNIK ALONG A DYING
FRONTAL ZONE AND IS TRACKING TO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF AK WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN BRUSHING KODIAK ISLAND AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS DECREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SW MAINLAND SHORTWAVE AS TRANSITORY
UPPER-RIDGING BUILDS IN. WHILE THIS IS TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF...THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND PERSISTENT LOW-LVL ONSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH BRISTOL BAY...THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND ALONG THE AKPEN. ALSO OF NOTE APPROACHING THE BERING SEA IS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
ROTATING EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS GENERALLY HANDLE THE MAIN FEATURES ACCEPTABLY. THE UPPER-LOW
IN THE EASTERN GULF IS DEPICTED MEANDERING IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...
WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND IT ARE SHOWN PUSHING UP THE AK PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND AS THE LOW SLIPS SOUTH...MORE TOWARDS EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. QPF STILL
REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND YESTERDAY'S ECMWF WHICH WAS
CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND WEST OF THE
CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES HAS BACKED OFF TODAY. WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION...MODELS ARE HINTING A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON FRI OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH CAPES 400 TO 600 J/KG.

OUT WEST...THE LOW FORMING OVER KAMCHATKA WILL TRACK TO AROUND 170
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY'S DEPICTION OF NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AT
A SIMILAR TIME FRAME. THE LOW IS SHOWN TRACKING MORE INTO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT THAT SWINGS INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CHAIN IS STRONGER AS WELL.
OVERALL THOUGH THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM SE AK MAY ALLOW
AN ISOLATED T-STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN THIS EVENING.
WITH THE LOSS OF THIS TYPE OF ADDITIONAL FORCING ON FRI...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY EXPECTING FAIR
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNSHINE IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS
PERIPHERAL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY WAVES ADVANCE TOWARDS THE REGION
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF STAYS UP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
ALSO LOOK FOR A STRENGTHENING COASTAL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF LEADING TO GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY.

ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW PUSHES AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH OFF-SHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN
IT'S WAKE. THIS FLOW IS APPRECIABLY WEAK HOWEVER...SO MIGHT TAKE A
BIT OF TIME TO YIELD SOME SUNNY BREAKS. THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE ENERGY/PRECIP FROM THE BERING SYSTEM BEARING
DOWN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AK.

SOUTHWEST...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK PREDOMINANT UNDER CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTS AND AKPEN. RAIN RETURNS
AS A SERIES OF BERING FRONTS MOVE TOWARDS SHORE. ONE IS A QUICK
MOVING ONE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON FRI...AND A STRONGER AND SLOWER
ONE ENCOMPASSES BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SAT AND SUN. THE
SECOND STRONGER FRONT SHOULD FEATURE NEAR TO MIN GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH BAYS/PASSES AND ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ALEUTIAN AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH FRI TO SAT. HAVE TRENDED WINDS TO GALE-FORCE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHAIN WHILE AT PEAK STRENGTH...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN BERING SEA. ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE FAR
WESTERN CHAIN ON SUN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP IT ACTIVE AND
STORMY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A LARGE UPPER-LOW CENTERING NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND INITIALLY
HINGE ON THE RESIDUAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS WEEKEND AND TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF IMPACTS SHOULD BE ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOKS TO BECOME
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE BERING LOW AS IT NEARS THE COAST MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY