Gale Warning 399, NWS Anchorage, AK

367 
FZAK51 PAFC 110522 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
920 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

UPDATED ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR 
ALASKA FRI MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK FRI
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 30 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 996 MB
SAT. 

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
920 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SE OF THE BARREN
ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

254 
FZAK51 PAFC 111153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 999 MB FRI EVENING 200 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INLAND SAT MORNING NEAR
CORDOVA. A 998 MB LOW FORMS FRI EVENING 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK AND
WEAKENS TO 1002 MB SAT AFTERNOON 60 NM NW OF KODIAK...AND THEN
WEAKENS TO 1006 MB SAT NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS TO 120 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD.

$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTLINE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
OCCURRING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA EASTWARD AND BRINGING IN VERY
MOIST AIR AS A RESULT. WHILE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO BRINGING IN
WARMER AIR IT IS NOT AS WARM AS NORMAL FOR THIS PATTERN...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING AND WESTERN COAST OF THE
STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
THEN HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF GREATER UNCERTAINTY BEFORE GETTING IN
PHASE AGAIN. THE PERIOD OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
THE ECMWF ANF UKMET KEEP A LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GULF IN TACT UNTIL AFTER IT PUSHES ON SHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THE GFS AND NAM A A BIT WEAKER ON THIS SYSTEM AND BREAK IT
APART BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW...HOWEVER THESE MODELS
MAY BE OVERSTATING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A LOT OF RAIN IS FALLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE
SEEING SNOWFALL. THIS INCLUDES THOMPSON PASS WHICH IS ALL SNOW TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE COPPER
RIVER.
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SNOW MIXING IN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL ALSO SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE THE SHOWERS TURN TO ALL
SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR SNOWFALL IS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE AREA DURING
THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE BEING SA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE
STATE BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130. FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 12