Gale Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

245 
FZAK51 PAFC 280014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 360 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TONIGHT AT 981 MB. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW WILL FORM
70 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT LATE SAT NIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-281500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-281500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-281500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-281500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-281500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. W
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-281500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-281500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT.. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-281500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF
KALGIN ISLAND.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-281500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE BUT
CONSENSUS IS POOR. MODELS SIMILARLY HANDLE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
THE ECMWF PUTS A GREATER EMPHASIS ON SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH
OF THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THAN THE GFS/GEMGLB/NAM.
COMPLICATING MATTERS...IS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE RESULTING SURFACE PATTERN HAS
UNDERGONE NUMEROUS CHANGES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE GFS/GEMGLB HAVE A SOMEWHAT REALISTIC
SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE NAM EARLY
ON DOES A FAIR JOB WITH THE DETAILS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONG WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES FRI. THE WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC MOVES SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT AND BECOMES GENERALLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT. A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF
THE CENTER TO SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL DRIFT
SOUTH FRI AND WEAKEN. SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COOK INLET AND KACHEMAK BAY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LOW DRIFTS SOUTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DIMINISH. THE
CHANCES OF SNOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT OF THE UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRI. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WINDY ON SAT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER SW ALASKA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRI.
THE FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE
RIDGE RETREATS NORTH AND A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW.

ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTH AS A LOW COMPLEX
MOVES NORTH. THE MAIN LOW ANCHORS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING WAVES MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE CHAIN. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE FRI WILL LIKELY BE SNOW...PROBABLY MIXING
WITH RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SAT. STRONG WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY SNOW...SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ALASKAN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING
UP FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN AK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 187.
MARINE...STORM 175. GALE 130 138 155 165 170 172 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12