Brisk Wind Advisory 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

004 
FZAK52 PAFC 252339
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261500-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 280 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE EARLY THU. A 990 MB LOW 340 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL 
MOVE TO 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WED NIGHT AT 980 MB AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST BERING SEA FRI.

$$

PKZ150-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF ATKA...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-261500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-261500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 25 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA WITH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW IN THE GULF IS BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WILL MOSTLY STAY IN PLACE AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS HOLDING STRONG AND
WILL BLOCK THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF A LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONE ANOTHER. LATE IN THE WEEK THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER
IN THE MOVEMENT OF FEATURES BUT IT IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE AT THIS
TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO THOSE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE NORTHERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN HAS THE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
HEAT UP THAT AREA AND FURTHER DESTABILIZE IT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE TOMORROW IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER THE
AREA AROUND COLD BAY REMAINS AFFECTED BY STRATUS AND THIS IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK LEAVING WEAK FLOW OVER MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
ALEUTIANS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STABLE SO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THAT AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS STABLE THAN
THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12