Brisk Wind Advisory 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

957 
FZAK52 PAFC 231222
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A COMPLEX 986 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO NEAR
SHEMYA THU EVENING AT 995 MB...THEN DISSIPATES FRI MORNING. A 1011
MB LOW FORMS 60 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI MORNING THEN MOVES TO
120 NM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 1008 MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES...
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY 
FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING SIDE...
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 13 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 
21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT DURING THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 20 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 50 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LEVELS AS A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE MAKING THE
FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
IMPULSES ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING LOW THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS LARGE COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW HAS AN
IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS RAPIDLY
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CENTER.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS LINGERING NEAR WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND....ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AS EVIDENT. THIS LOW
SHOULD BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
AS A RESULT...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INCREASING AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL.
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM BRISTOL BAY UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WHILE THE GALE FORCE
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES COMPARED TO
THE 18Z SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS
CONCERN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM SHOW A
MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEAR
BRISTOL BAY AND CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARD NORTHERN COOK INLET.
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ONLY HINT AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION...THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD IF THIS SHORTWAVE IS AS POTENT AS IT IS BEING
ADVERTISED. WE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
MINOR CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

OTHERWISE THE MODELS HAVE ALTERED THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AS IT
BECOMES AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF THE SHARP NORTH TO
SOUTH RIDGE AXIS...NOW THE MODELS ARE BENDING THE AXIS BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND THE NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS SLIGHT CHANGE WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FILLING IN AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY CONVECTIVE...ALMOST SPRING
LIKE. BELIEVE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM PANS OUT...AND
THEN A GRADUAL CLEARING AGAIN TOWARD MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING SEA LOW APPROACH SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
REGION. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT BUT STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT.

SOUTHWEST...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO FINALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME
LOCALIZED FOG LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS ENERGY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO
COASTAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS IT DID WITH
YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STILL SOME SNOW AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS THE REMNANTS MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA WHERE THE LARGE
COMPLEX LOW BEGINS WEAKENING TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT
MARCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SPREADING SNOW AND
RAIN WITH IT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING BUT BELIEVE
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ENOUGH WARM AIR
TO ALLEVIATE THE CHANCE OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

A SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SAME REGION OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC FRIDAY AND BRINGS STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB FEB 12