Blizzard Watch 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

926 
WWAK41 PAFC 181904
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1004 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. AS THIS PASSES EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF KODIAK ISLAND
(INCLUDING KODIAK CITY) WILL RISE TO AROUND FREEZING AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF.
THUS...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT WETTER SNOW WITH HIGHER VISIBILITIES IN
THESE AREAS. THE WORST CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE 20S.

AKZ171-190815-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0035.121119T0600Z-121119T1600Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0054.121119T0600Z-121119T1600Z/
KODIAK ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY
1004 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKST
MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...KODIAK ISLAND.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 9
  INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
  KODIAK CITY AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
  GREATER THAN ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THEN
  PEAK THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
  DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STEADY AND
  HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE IN BY MID EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
  MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN IMPROVED VISIBILITIES.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 AM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE DEPICTS A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE
DISTURBANCES PASSING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A LARGER SCALE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEGINS TO EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. AS THIS FEATURE
MIGRATES INTO BRISTOL BAY...AREAS OF SNOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK
ISLAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED PV
ANOMALY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WILL MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PATTERN. THEY REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FAVORED FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WAS FAVORED TODAY GIVEN ITS
BETTER HANDLING OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GAP WINDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
STRONG CHANNELED OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILT UP OVER THE
INTERIOR CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE INTO THE GULF AND COOK INLET. BANDS
OF SNOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND LATER TODAY. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF
THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY RELEGATED TO UPWIND PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
KODIAK ISLAND INCLUDING THE TOWN...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AS NORTHERLY WINDS GUST INTO
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. ELSEWHERE...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE CONTINUED BLUSTERY AND COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...PEAKING INTO THE 45 TO 80 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO PLUMMET AS
LOW AS NEGATIVE 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INCLUDING DUTCH HARBOR INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THAT AREA
DRY...WITH A STORM FORCE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA
REMAINS ENTRENCHED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY RESULTS
IN DRY AND COLD WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA...AND THE ENTIRE SUITE
OF GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 171.
MARINE...STORM 155 176.
         GALE 120 127 128 132 150 160 165 170 171 172 175 179 180 411
         413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 130 140 150 155 160 165
         180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AHSENMACHER NOV 12