Blizzard Watch 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

176 
WWAK42 PAFC 212353
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

AKZ195-221400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0030.120322T2000Z-120323T0400Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0045.120322T1800Z-120323T0400Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
353 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM AKDT THURSDAY.
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES. 

* FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. 

* WIND...EAST WIND 25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. 

* TIMING...SNOW AND WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
  CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
  POSSIBLY GIVE WAY TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING
  AN END TO THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-221400-
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.A.0031.120323T0200Z-120323T2000Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
353 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. 

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. 

* WIND...EAST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
  DEVELOPING BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAR 21 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NARROW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA...WITH A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
RIDGING RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
MAINLAND OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG YET
WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY JET RESIDES FROM OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STACKED LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SERVES AS AN ANCHOR FOR PERIPHERAL LOWS
TO TRAVEL AROUND IT. ONE SUCH SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST OF SHEMYA
BEFORE CURVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS RUSSIA AND WEAKENING
TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARDS SHEMYA TONIGHT...THEN
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 957 MB THURSDAY EVENING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE DOMAIN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH A CENTER OF ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH WEAK LOWS DRIFTING EAST AS THEY WEAKEN ON THEIR
TREK FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

THERMAL AND WIND GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AND SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE DOMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHOT AT
SOME SNOW APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...

STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FOG LIKE WE
SAW TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD BUT WITH WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THURSDAY. RETURN
FLOW AND AN APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO SNOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSOLVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING JUST
DOWNSTREAM. THIS IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FRONT WHICH ENTERS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES BETWEEN ADAK AND SHEMYA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG CORE OF STORM FORCE WINDS SEEMS CERTAIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY AS IT WINDS UP
IN THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING SEA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOTS OF
WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN RAIN
AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA
WILL WIND DOWN BUT ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO USHER SEVERAL MORE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE BERING REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL GENERALLY RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AND/OR THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH LEFT TO GENERATE THE SNOW NEEDED TO
BREAK THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR ANCHORAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...129 130 150 172 175 185 179
         STORMS...176
         HVY FRZG SPRY...121 129 130 132 138 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC MAR 12