Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Las Vegas, NV

775 
WWUS55 KVEF 052123
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
223 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

CAC071-052130-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110705T2130Z/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
223 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM PDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 221 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JOSHUA TREE LAKE
CAMPGROUND...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF TWENTYNINE PALMS...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3421 11642 3430 11621 3422 11617 3419 11621
      3415 11628 3416 11632 3417 11636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 143DEG 4KT 3424 11632

$$

JGG

518 
WWUS55 KVEF 052131
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
231 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

CAC071-052140-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110705T2130Z/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
231 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM LOCATED NORTH OF YUCCA VALLEY HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. IT REMAINS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL. 

LAT...LON 3421 11642 3430 11621 3422 11617 3419 11621
      3415 11628 3416 11632 3417 11636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 143DEG 4KT 3424 11632

$$

JGG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1046 AM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEK. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE HIGHER
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER DESERTS.
&&

.UPDATE...CONVECTION SLOWLY BUBBLING UP ALREADY THIS MORNING. TOUGH
TO PINPOINT ANY ONE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORMS...AS THE WEAK SHEAR
AXIS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OVERLIES AN AREA WHICH GOT WORKED
OVER PRETTY GOOD YESTERDAY SO AVAILABLE ENERGY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
IS QUESTIONABLE. GOING FORECAST DEPICTS BROADLY BRUSHED POPS WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON MOUNTAIN AREAS...WHICH LOOKS VERY GOOD. NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
348 AM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...RADAR RETURNS ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL INYO COUNTY. ONLY AREA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REACHING THE GROUND WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LINE MOVING
NORTH THAT IS OVER I-15 BETWEEN BARSTOW AND BAKER. OTHERWISE SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TODAY WHILE A SECONDARY CIRCULATION WHICH THE
MODELS SUGGEST SPLIT OFF FROM INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE OVER EAST
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY TO NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY COMBINED WITH MODEST
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LEND SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE...NO FEATURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER ARIZONA THAT WOULD
HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. CONCERN
WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AS
MODELS PROG BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES OF PRECIP. WATER ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA AND 1.25-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NOT A
HECK OF A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SWIPING CENTRAL NEVADA. THUS THIS MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. IF ANY AREA SEES A
DOWNWARD TREND ON FRIDAY IT LOOKS TO BE OVER NW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AS THE TROUGH AXIS CHANGES THE FLOW TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE FIRST TROUGH HEADS EAST AND A SECOND TROUGH
AXIS HEADS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH AXIS LOOKS DEEPER AND
THUS IT SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS BY
FAR WAY MORE MOIST THAN SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR THEN OVER WESTERN INYO
COUNTY WHILE BY SUNDAY IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN
CLARK COUNTIES. MONDAY ONWARDS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND SPREADING
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST. BY THEN POPS WERE KEPT MAINLY EAST OF THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ONE CONCERN WITH THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE SOME ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 6-12 KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE SCT-BKN AOA
8K FEET THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND AND IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT DUE TO ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THIS THE TAF SHOWS ONLY A
CB. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
NOT SHOWN IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME AND IF NEEDED THE TAF WILL BE
AMENDED FOR THESE SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF THE APPROACH CORRIDORS TODAY. THE THREAT OF TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY IN AND AROUND THE VALLEY AND AS
WELL AS ALL OF THE APPROACH CORRIDORS. CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE REDUCED
IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WINDS
WILL MAINLY FOLLOW DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ONCE AGAIN
NOT SHOWN IN THE TAFS. BLDU MAY BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS AS WELL
WITH REDUCED VSBY. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY...HOWEVER ACTIVITY MAY BE FOCUSED MORE IN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 7K-10K FEET WITH LOWER CIGS
AND VSBY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

MORGAN/PIERCE/STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
523 AM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-060700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
523 AM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011 /523 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE BETTER ORGANIZE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LONE PINE TO BEATTY TO CALIENTE TODAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. TURN AROUND...
DONT DROWN!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY. DRYING
FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OVER THE WEEKEND CONFINING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IS A CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.