Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK SHRTWVS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY HELPED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. WEAK SHRTWV INDICATED BY PROFILER DATA AND WV
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. MCV FROM
WESTERN KANSAS CONVECTION ALSO NOTED ON RADAR...BUT WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG CLOSED H5 LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY WHICH HAD DEEPENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS.

POTENT CLOSED H5 LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MINOR STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT.  FEEL GFS OVER DONE
A BIT ON THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW...AND NAM A BIT TOO FAST.  DECIDED
ECMWF MODEL WAS BEST ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHRTWV.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THEN SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.  BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...SO FOCUSED BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I70.  WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV...EXPECT PRECIP
CHANCES TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  ATTM...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE SUN
BAKED GROUND...BUT HEAVY PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE
CELLS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.40 INCHES AS INDICATED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE
MID 80'S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70'S.  HIGHER TEMPS IN THE LOW 90'S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MORE SUN AND LESS CLOUD COVER AS THE
GREATER AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH.

BYRNE

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AN OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT WILL BRING BACK NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES
RELATIVELY ZONAL. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES...SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TO
TIME...ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PROVIDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE 60S OVER THE WARMEST AREAS...AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS JUNCTURE. A COLD FRONT SAGS
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MONDAY-THURSDAY CONTINUE TO
LOOK LIKE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME...WHICH WILL SUPPORT NEAR
NORMAL...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE CWA AND UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION.

SBLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP/BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE THEREFORE
CARRIED VCTS FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 12Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE TAFS
SITES BY 21Z. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CIGS AOA 5KFT THROUGH
THE FCST WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ039-
040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
848 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1056 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

KSZ037-054-040445-
LYON-MORRIS-
1056 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...GENERATED BY A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MORRIS AND SOUTHWEST LYON COUNTIES AFTER
1115 PM. WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG OR WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS INCLUDE
BURDICK...WILSEY...OLPE...EMPORIA...DUNLAP AND AMERICUS. MOTORISTS
ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 131 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.
&&

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3852 9636 3852 9693 3864 9693
      3875 9680 3853 9622 3817 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 232DEG 39KT 3852 9721 3818 9660
          3783 9640

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1113 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

KSZ035-040445-
DICKINSON-
1113 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKINSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DICKINSON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
CARLTON...HOPE...ABILENE AIRPORT...WOODBINE...SOLOMON...HERINGTON...
ENTERPRISE AND ABILENE. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 267 AND 279 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9738 3895 9738 3903 9729 3884 9690
      3881 9690 3881 9693 3870 9693 3861 9694
      3860 9732 3861 9738 3893 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 211DEG 21KT 3868 9749