Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
905 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

.UPDATE...CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. SO FAR...STRONGEST
STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH...RAINFALL RATES ABOUT AN
INCH AN HOUR AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

UPPER TROUGH AND DYNAMICS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TO PUSH
GULF LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SEVERAL
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACTING AS CONVECTION INITIATORS. ONE OVER THE
FL PENINSULA INTO E GULF FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR TO NEAR DAYTONA AND THE ANOTHER FROM THE LOW CENTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY
OF SRQ NORTHWARD. WHILE RA WILL PREVAIL...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL UPDATE WITH TEMPO TSRA AS
NEEDED. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A BETTER SHOT OF RA AND POSSIBLY TSRA FOR FMY AND
RSW BUT UNTIL THEN WILL MAINTAIN VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE THROUGH THE E GULF WATERS
TODAY WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FOR WINDS 15+ KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT
THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME GUSTY WITH
BUILDING SEAS IN AND AROUND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARINERS
MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  58  70  58 /  90  20  10  10
FMY  75  60  75  59 /  90  30  10  10
GIF  72  56  73  56 /  90  20  10  10
SRQ  70  58  71  58 /  90  20  10  10
BKV  70  53  71  53 /  90  20  10  10
SPG  69  60  70  60 /  90  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
515 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-172200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
515 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND A
FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
WET GROUND AFTER TODAYS RAIN WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SOME
OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE. THOSE TRAVELING TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...
REDUCE YOUR SPEED...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND
OTHER VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC