Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

October 9, 2011Hardee County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this river flood warning at Oct 9, 2011, 9:55 PM EDT for Hardee County, Florida. It took effect at Oct 10, 2011, 9:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 9, 2011, 9:55 PM EDT (01:55 UTC)
In effect from: Oct 10, 2011, 9:00 AM EDT
Expired: Oct 13, 2011, 10:39 AM EDT
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Flood severity: Minor

County Hardee County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Peace River at Zolfo Springs (ZFSF1). The gauge peaked at 17.60 ft at Oct 11, 2011, 4:00 AM EDT.

Action stage: 14 ft
Minor stage: 16 ft
Moderate stage: 20 ft
Major stage: 22 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02295637, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

843 
WGUS42 KTBW 100155
FLWTBW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
955 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...THE LITTLE MANATEE 
 RIVER AT WIMAUMA...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...THE PEACE
 RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...AND THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA

A WEEKEND OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED THE WATER LEVEL ON SEVERAL
AREA RIVERS TO RISE. THESE RIVERS ARE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE RISING
AND WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...OR HAVE 
ALREADY REACHED FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC057-101455-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0011.111010T1342Z-111013T0712Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.111010T1342Z.111011T1200Z.111013T0112Z.NO/
955 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...8.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...THE CANOE RENTAL AREA FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.4 
  FEET ON AUG 25 1994.

$$

FLC081-101455-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0012.111010T1009Z-111011T2248Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.111010T1009Z.111011T0000Z.111011T1648Z.NO/
955 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...9 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM 
  FLOOD. AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.1 
  FEET ON JUN 21 1975.

$$

FLC049-101455-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0013.111010T1300Z-111014T0900Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T1300Z.111011T1200Z.111014T0300Z.NO/
955 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...14.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.1 FEET BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.1 
  FEET ON JUL 7 1974.

$$

FLC027-101455-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111011T2308Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111011T2308Z.111013T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
955 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM TUESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 9PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...5.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 12.7 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...PEACE RIVER ESTATES FLOODS AFFECTING SEVERAL 
  DOZEN HOMES
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION 
  FLOOD AND THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.7 
  FEET ON FEB 27 1942.

$$

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11   8.1  SUN 09 PM  13.4   12.4   10.1    8.6    MSG

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11   9.0  SUN 09 PM  11.4    8.6    6.2    5.0    MSG

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  14.8  SUN 09 PM  17.1   16.8   16.3   15.7    MSG
 ARCADIA      11   5.2  SUN 09 PM   9.8   12.1   12.7   12.5    MSG

8 follow-up statements

540 
WGUS82 KTBW 101508
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1108 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE
LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...THE MANATEE RIVER
AT MYAKKA HEAD...THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...AND THE PEACE RIVER AT
ARCADIA...

...INUNDATING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND HAVE CAUSED RISES
OF THE RIVER LEVELS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BE FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC057-110408-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111013T0336Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.111010T2141Z.111011T1800Z.111012T2136Z.NO/
1108 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 12.7 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...THE CANOE RENTAL AREA FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.6 FEET ON SEP 28 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11   8.6  MON 10 AM  12.6   11.9    9.8    8.4    7.7

$$

FLC081-110408-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111012T0925Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.111010T0613Z.111010T1800Z.111012T0325Z.NO/
1108 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW LATE EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.  
  AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.5 FEET ON SEP 27 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  13.1  MON 10 AM  12.4    9.8    6.4    5.1    4.6

$$

FLC105-101538-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111014T0600Z/
/BARF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1108 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET 
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 BARTOW        8   7.5  MON 10 AM   7.8    7.1    6.4    5.8    5.5

$$

FLC049-110408-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111012T2200Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0000Z.111012T1600Z.NO/
1108 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR 
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING 
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.0 FEET ON SEP 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  17.0  MON 10 AM  17.2   16.2   15.3   14.5   13.8

$$

FLC027-110408-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111011T2230Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111011T2230Z.111013T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1108 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 10AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 12.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...PEACE RIVER ESTATES FLOODS AFFECTING SEVERAL DOZEN 
  HOMES
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION FLOOD AND 
  THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11   6.9  MON 10 AM   9.6   12.1   12.3   11.8   11.0

$$

445 
WGUS82 KTBW 101919
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
319 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER 
 NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...AND THE PEACE
 RIVER AT ARCADIA...

...INUNDATING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND HAVE CAUSED RISES OF THE RIVER 
LEVELS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD 
STAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC081-110819-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111012T0925Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.111010T0613Z.111010T1615Z.111012T0325Z.NO/
319 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
* AT 2PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM 
  FLOOD. AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.5 
  FEET ON SEP 27 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  13.0  MON 02 PM  12.4    9.8    6.4    5.1    4.6

$$

FLC049-110819-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111012T2200Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0000Z.111012T1600Z.NO/
319 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING 
* AT 2PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17 FEET
  ON SEP 2 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  17.3  MON 02 PM  17.2   16.2   15.3   14.5   13.8

$$

FLC027-110819-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111011T2230Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111011T2230Z.111013T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
319 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 2PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...PEACE RIVER ESTATES FLOODS AFFECTING SEVERAL
  DOZEN HOMES
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION 
  FLOOD AND THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 
  FEET ON OCT 2 2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11   7.2  MON 02 PM   9.6   12.1   12.3   11.8   11.0

$$

FLC057-101949-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111013T0336Z/
/WIMF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
319 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT 
WIMAUMA
* AT 2PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.6 
  FEET ON AUG 23 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11   8.9  MON 02 PM  10.2    9.1    7.2    6.4    6.1

$$

539 
WGUS82 KTBW 110150
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
950 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER 
 NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...AND THE PEACE
 RIVER AT ARCADIA.

...WATER LEVELS ON WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA RIVERS REMAINS HIGH FROM 
RAINS THIS WEEKEND...WITH FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS ON THE PEACE RIVER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC081-111450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111011T2125Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.111010T0613Z.111010T1615Z.111011T1525Z.NO/
950 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM 
  FLOOD. AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.2
  FEET ON SEP 10 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  12.1  MON 09 PM   8.3    5.9    4.9    4.4    MSG

$$

FLC049-111450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111014T0800Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T1200Z.111014T0200Z.NO/
950 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
* AT 8PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.5 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.9 FEET BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY BEFORE 
  MIDNIGHT.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 
  17 FEET ON SEP 2 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  17.5  MON 08 PM  17.2   16.4   15.6   14.5    MSG

$$

FLC027-111450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111012T0215Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111012T0215Z.111013T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 8PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...K O A CAMPGROUND FLOODS AND 6 HOMES AT RIVER
  ACRES ARE IMPACTED
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...PEACE RIVER ESTATES FLOODS AFFECTING SEVERAL 
  DOZEN HOMES
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION 
  FLOOD AND THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.6 
  FEET ON SEP 9 2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11   7.6  MON 08 PM  12.1   13.2   13.0   12.2    MSG

$$

774 
WGUS82 KTBW 111408
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE PEACE RIVER
AT ZOLFO SPRINGS AND AT ARCADIA...

THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANATEE RIVER AT MYAKKA HEAD
IS CANCELLED...

...WEEKEND RAINS RAISED THE RIVER LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. FLOODING
CONTINUES ON THE PEACE RIVER UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC049-120308-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111013T1200Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0900Z.111013T0600Z.NO/
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING 
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY 
  MORNING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17 FEET ON SEP 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  17.6  TUE 09 AM  16.7   15.7   14.6   14.0   13.4

$$

FLC027-120308-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111012T1912Z-111015T1500Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111012T1912Z.111013T1200Z.111015T0900Z.NO/
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 11.7 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION FLOOD AND 
  THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11   8.5  TUE 09 AM  10.5   11.7   11.5   10.9   10.0

$$

FLC081-111438-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111011T2125Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.111010T0613Z.111010T1615Z.111011T0740Z.NO/
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON 
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.  
  AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.1 FEET ON JUL 14 
  2002.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  10.2  TUE 09 AM   7.0    5.4    4.9    4.4    4.2

301 
WGUS82 KTBW 120145
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
945 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE PEACE RIVER AT
 ZOLFO SPRINGS AND THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA...

...WEEKEND RAINS HAVE RAISED WATER LEVELS ON THE PEACE RIVER. THE 
RIVER HAS CRESTED AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...BUT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA CONTINUES 
TO RISE AND WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC049-121445-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111013T2000Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0900Z.111013T1400Z.NO/
945 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 8PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17 
  FEET ON SEP 2 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  17.3  TUE 08 PM  16.1   14.7   14.1   13.5    MSG

$$

FLC027-121445-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111013T0400Z-111015T0600Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111013T0400Z.111013T1800Z.111015T0000Z.NO/
945 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* AT 8PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 11.4 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW  FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION 
  FLOOD AND THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 
  FEET ON OCT 2 2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11   9.1  TUE 08 PM  11.2   11.2   10.6    9.6    MSG

$$

186 
WGUS82 KTBW 121433
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW...
AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...AND AT ARCADIA...

...RIVER LEVELS HAD RISEN...AFTER THE WEEKEND RAINS...TO ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND ARE AT CREST OR WILL CREST LATER TODAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC105-130333-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0015.111012T1800Z-111014T0000Z/
/BARF1.1.ER.111012T1800Z.111013T0000Z.111013T1800Z.NO/
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 8.1 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

PEACE
 BARTOW        8   8.0  WED 10 AM   8.0    7.8    7.4    6.9    6.5

$$

FLC049-130333-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111014T0000Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0900Z.111013T1800Z.NO/
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING 
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17 FEET ON SEP 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  16.8  WED 09 AM  16.2   15.2   14.3   13.7   13.2

$$

FLC027-130333-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111013T0600Z-111015T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111013T0600Z.111013T1200Z.111014T1800Z.NO/
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT  9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 11.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION FLOOD AND 
  THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11   9.9  WED 09 AM  11.2   11.1   10.5    9.6    8.7

034 
WGUS82 KTBW 130120
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
920 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT
BARTOW...ZOLFO SPRINGS...AND ARCADIA.

WATER LEVELS ON THE PEACE RIVER REMAIN HIGH AFTER THIS PAST
WEEKEND'S HEAVY RAINS. THE RIVER HAS EITHER ALREADY CRESTED
OR IS EXPECTED TO CREST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC105-131420-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-111014T1800Z/
/BARF1.1.ER.111012T1615Z.111013T0600Z.111014T1200Z.NO/
920 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

PEACE
 BARTOW        8   8.0  WED 09 PM   8.0    7.8    7.6    7.5    MSG

$$

FLC049-131420-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111013T1800Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0900Z.111013T1200Z.NO/
920 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 8PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.0 FEET ON SEP 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  16.3  WED 08 PM  15.3   14.6   13.9   13.4    MSG

$$

FLC027-131420-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.111013T1200Z-111014T1800Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111013T1200Z.111013T1800Z.111014T1200Z.NO/
920 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 11.2 FEET BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY FRIDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION FLOOD AND 
  THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11  10.1  WED 08 PM  11.0   10.4    9.7    8.9    MSG

$$

620 
WGUS82 KTBW 131439
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE PEACE RIVER AT
BARTOW AND ARCADIA...THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE
PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS...

...THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW IS FORECAST TO CREST LATER TODAY...THE
PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS AND ARCADIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC105-140339-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-111017T1200Z/
/BARF1.1.ER.111012T1615Z.111014T0000Z.111017T0600Z.NO/
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING 
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

PEACE
 BARTOW        8   8.1  THU 10 AM   8.2    8.1    8.1    7.9    7.6

$$

FLC049-131509-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111013T1800Z/
/ZFSF1.1.ER.111010T0707Z.111011T0900Z.111013T0615Z.NO/
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON 
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.0 FEET ON SEP 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

PEACE
 ZOLFO SPRIN  16  15.7  THU 09 AM  14.9   14.2   13.8   13.2   12.8

$$

FLC027-140339-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-111015T1500Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.111013T1710Z.111014T0000Z.111015T0900Z.NO/
1039 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 11.3 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...ACCESS ROADS TO RIVER ACRES BECOME FLOODED
* IMPACT...AT 10 FEET...3 TO 4 HOMES IN THE RIVER ACRES SUBDIVISION FLOOD AND 
  THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2003.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11  10.1  THU 09 AM  11.3   10.9   10.1    9.7    9.2

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 9, 8:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 9, 8:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

.UPDATE...PLENTY OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A
DEEP MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED BY THE
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH A SECOND BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS NOW AFFECTING THE FL EAST COAST. WEAK SUBSIDENCE RIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE OF THE STATE IS SUGGESTED BY RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE INTERIOR
ZONES...BUT STILL COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW/FRONT COMPLEX
APPROACHES.

WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW BEING DEPICTED BY MODEL/MSAS ANALYSIS
AS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST BY FORT PIERCE...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE
SURFACE WINDS...POPS AND QPF VALUES THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. AS
THE LOW PUSHES NW AND BLENDS WITH THE WARM FRONT...FLOW ON THE WAKE
OF THE LOW WILL TURN SW/S AND PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE
GULF WATERS INTO THE AREA. WILL INCREASE OVERALL POPS BY TEN PERCENT
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD WITH SCATTERED 50 PERCENT FROM
PASCO THROUGH SARASOTA...AND 40 PERCENT FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT.

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
HAVE RELAXED ENOUGH TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/FRONT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE.

MORNING LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S NORTH-TO-SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS SITES FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND COULD AFFECT FMY/RSW LATE TONIGHT...SRQ TOWARD
MORNING...AND REACH TPA/PIE DURING MONDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FROM 154 PM EDT TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
THEN THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN TANDEM WITH
THE SURFACE LOW.

AS IT DOES SO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY THEN SOUTHWEST DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION...WITH POPS IN THE
30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. TRENDS FROM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING TO OCCUR...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
COUNTIES JUST TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.

DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WILL BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY (POPS 30 PERCENT) WITH HIGHER POPS
CENTRAL AND NORTH (POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE) WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RANGE
POPS (30 TO 40 PERCENT SOUTH TO NORTH) AREA-WIDE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S...FIRST ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST ZONES ON
MONDAY THEN ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN
FL AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS
AND SEAS AT ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE NORTH EAST GULF AND THE WARM FRONT
BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS FINALLY RELAX AND
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. W/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...REMAINING BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  85  74  87 /  50  40  30  40
FMY  73  85  74  88 /  40  30  30  30
GIF  69  86  73  88 /  50  40  30  40
SRQ  71  85  73  86 /  40  40  30  30
BKV  71  84  70  87 /  50  50  30  40
SPG  72  83  76  87 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE...22/AR
SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...35/JOHNSON
AVIATION...69/CLOSE

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 9, 5:26 AM EDT, 16 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
526 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-092130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
526 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 MPH
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS.
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD AGAIN APPROACH GALE FORCE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET OFF SHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET
NEAR SHORE. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO
POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE STATE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BECAUSE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET OFF SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

BARRON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 9, 9:55 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	TBW	Hillsborough	17 hr
Oct 9, 9:55 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	TBW	Manatee	44 hr
Oct 9, 9:55 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	TBW	DeSoto	8 days
Oct 10, 3:04 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Levy	56 min
Oct 10, 4:06 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Levy	54 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2011 Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.