Red Flag Warning 102, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

327 
WWUS82 KTAE 290832
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT
TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COUPLED
WITH ELEVATED 20 FT WINDS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM EDT
TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COUPLED WITH FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND OF FLORIDA EXCEPT DIXIE COUNTY DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND ELEVATED 20 FOOT WINDS...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DIXIE COUNTY FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES OR ERC VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH
THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA. ON SUNDAY... THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA...DISPERSIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY HIGH AND CURRENTLY
DO NOT MEET CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH.

FLZ034-134-290945-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0102.111029T1800Z-111030T0000Z/
INLAND DIXIE-COASTAL DIXIE-
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DIXIE COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT LONGER ANTICIPATED TO
GET LOW ENOUGH TO SATISFY CRITERIA. 

$$

FLZ007>016-026-108-112-114-292100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.111029T1700Z-111030T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0085.111030T1800Z-111030T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LIBERTY-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 /332 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE CONTINUES A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH WINDS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND OF
  FLORIDA 

* WIND...NORTH WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 90.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ALZ065>069-292100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.111029T1800Z-111029T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0085.111030T1800Z-111030T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
332 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CDT THIS EVENING... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE CONTINUES A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH HIGH
WINDS AND KBDI. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* KBDI...AROUND 600.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FLZ017-018-027-292100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.111029T1800Z-111030T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0085.111030T1800Z-111030T2300Z/
LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND WAKULLA-
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE CONTINUES A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH WINDS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...CENTRAL BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 23 TO 25 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 65 AND 85.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-292100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.111029T1800Z-111029T2300Z/
QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-
TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-
BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* WIND...15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FLZ019-028-029-115-118-127-128-292100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.111029T1800Z-111030T0000Z/
MADISON-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...THE EASTERN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.

* WIND...AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 28 TO 34 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 60 AND 85.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

18-WOOL

056 
WWUS82 KTAE 291907
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
307 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE HIGH DISPERSIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF 
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED 20 
FOOT WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND POSSIBLE HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER 
NORTH FLORIDA HAVE PROMPTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STILL DRY ON SUNDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...ELIMINATING THE NEED FOR ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

FLZ007>016-026-108-112-114-301130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.000000T0000Z-111030T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0085.111030T1800Z-111030T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LIBERTY-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
307 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 /207 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTH FLORIDA...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTH FLORIDA.

* WIND...NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 24 TO 31 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 65 AND 80.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ALZ065>069-301130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.000000T0000Z-111029T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0085.111030T1800Z-111030T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
207 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* AFFECTED AREA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

* WIND...NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* KBDI...BETWEEN 600 TO 700.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FLZ017-018-027-301130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.000000T0000Z-111030T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0085.111030T1800Z-111030T2300Z/
LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND WAKULLA-
307 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTH FLORIDA... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTH FLORIDA. 

* WIND...NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 30 TO 35 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 65 AND 80.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-292300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.000000T0000Z-111029T2300Z/
QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-
TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-
BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
307 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* AFFECTED AREA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* WIND...AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FLZ019-028-029-115-118-127-128-300000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.000000T0000Z-111030T0000Z/
MADISON-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
307 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTH FLORIDA...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTH FLORIDA. 

* WIND...AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 30 TO 35 PERCENT.

* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 60 AND 80.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...18 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through Western Alabama. Temperatures were dropping quickly behind
this cold front with values already in the low to mid 50s back
across Mississippi. Extensive low cloudiness is present behind the
cold front all the way westward to Louisiana. Very little in the way
of shower activity is occurring ahead of this front.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday).
Primary concern throughout the near term period will be the eastward
progression of the cold front across the area. The models are in
very good agreement about the timing through the area just after
daybreak on Saturday. Model time heights are all in good agreement
about a narrow layer of moisture beneath the 850 mb layer staying
put behind the front until 12z to 15z across the area so expect the
post-frontal cloud cover to be slow to erode from west to east.
Strong cold advection behind the frontal boundary with breezy
northwest winds will make Saturday feel quite cool with high
temperatures only in the mid to upper 60s. May see a couple of sites
in North Florida reach the 70 degree mark, though this is not
anticipated across much of the area.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Sunday Night).
The surface ridge centered over Tennessee is forecast to remain
north of the local area, this will keep some wind in the forecast
during the overnight hours on Saturday. Even though winds are not
expected to go calm, Saturday night will bring much cooler
temperatures regionwide. Expect upper 30s for most inland locations,
with the exception being our normally cooler spots that could fall
into the middle 30s. Along the coast, temperatures will fall into
the lower to middle 40s.

Sunday looks to be a rather benign day across the local area with
highs only climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly
clear skies.

Sunday night, as what remains of Rina pushes moisture to the north
across the Gulf, we will see moisture increase over our marine
locations and the southeastern Big Bend of Florida. The added
moisture, coupled with a passing shortwave could allow for some
showers to form over our marine locations. The main effect that the
increase in moisture will have on the local area is an increase in
cloud cover along and east of a line from Albany south to
Tallahassee. This will keep temperatures moderated in these areas
from the middle and upper 40s to the east down to the lower 40s to
the west of the line.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday).
The extended period will begin with cyclogenesis off the Atlantic
coast (represented in varying degrees by the different models) as
the next digging mid-upper level trough arrives at the coast. The
stalled low-level front is expected to be at least 300 miles
southeast of the forecast area, and therefore deeper forcing through
the depth of the atmosphere would likely be focused well east and
southeast as well. A few of the models bring some 0.01-0.02" rain
totals close to Dixie County, but there wasn't enough compelling
evidence to include any PoPs for Monday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure builds into the area with
the surface ridge axis likely to be aligned just east of the spine
of the Appalachian Mountains, down into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This is likely to keep things sunny and dry, with moderating
temperatures. The wind profile in the lowest 1-2km AGL is likely to
veer rather quickly to the east and then southeast, which should
allow the wedge of cooler air to erode rather quickly. GFS, GEM, and
ECMWF consensus 850mb temperatures by Wednesday are around +11C
which would typically correspond to highs close to 80 on a
well-mixed, sunny day. Based on this shift in the models, highs and
lows for Tue-Wed were trended up, and sit somewhere between HPC
Guidance on the low end, and Gridded MOS on the high end.

Beyond that, the model solutions diverge in wildly different
directions, which is a departure from yesterday night when most of
the models took another cold front through the area late in the
week. The 28.00z GFS still holds onto this theory, with a relatively
amplified but progressive long wave trough digging into the eastern
CONUS. While the GFS places the trough axis over our area on
Thursday, the 28.00z ECMWF has a ridge axis, and evolves a split
flow pattern with the northern branch trough staying less amplified
and affecting the Great Lakes, and a closed mid-upper low developing
over the southern Plains. The GEM develops a closed low even further
west near the Four Corners. Essentially, there is very low
confidence in the forecast beyond Wednesday, and things were trended
very close to HPC Guidance and the GFS Ensemble Mean to maintain
some consistency with the previous forecast. Given a lack of
confidence in any frontal passage, the forecast was kept dry.

&&

.MARINE...Cold front will be nearing the marine area from the west
tonight. SCA level winds and seas will begin quickly behind the cold
front with winds building to 25 knots with higher gusts on Saturday.
Expect advisory conditions to continue through much of Sunday.
Advisory conditions could possibly continue into the first of the
week depending on the eventual strength of the ridge off the Mid
Atlantic Coast, but for now cautionary conditions to start the work
week looks to be a good bet.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail for now though solid MVFR to
occasional IFR conditions will be possible behind the cold front.
Model guidance continues to be optimistic, but it is tough to argue
with the upstream obs showing such pessimistic values. Will show
MVFR conditions starting at our western terminals around 03z and
spreading eastward throughout the overnight hours. Expect clearing
to begin around 11z in the west and by 15z in the east at VLD.
Thereafter, gusty north-northwest winds in the 25 to 30 knot range
are expected Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air and strong northwesterly winds will funnel
in behind the front beginning tomorrow. Low relative humidity
coupled with the winds will result in red flag conditions for the
entire forecast area Saturday afternoon. Dispersions will also be a
concern across north Florida and portions of southern Georgia with
values approaching 100 in some locations. On Sunday, the dry
conditions will persist and winds may just be high enough to warrant
warning conditions across southeastern Alabama. Across north
Florida, dispersions will be marginally high and could result in the
need for a warning as well. For this package, have decided to issue
a watch for southeast Alabama and portions of North Florida for
Sunday. Later shifts may need to upgrade.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   57  70  37  69  46 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   53  70  43  66  49 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        47  67  37  69  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  67  37  68  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  68  39  70  47 /  20  10   0   0   0
Cross City    61  74  38  71  49 /  20  20   0   0  10
Apalachicola  56  70  41  68  51 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM EDT /Noon CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     South Walton-Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Sunday from
     Apalachicola to the Suwannee River out to 60 nautical miles.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Sunday from
     Destin to Apalachicola out to 60 nautical miles.

&&

Long Term...Lamers
Short Term/Fire Weather...Harrigan
Rest of Discussion...Godsey

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
542 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-291000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
542 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 /442 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST GULF AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

18-WOOL