Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...BUT STAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MOISTURE DECREASES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SO WILL THE CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING NOW FULLY EXITING SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LOCAL FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH DESERT WHERE THERE IS A FLOOD
ADVISORY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THIS WAVE PRODUCING ALL
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A
MORE TYPICAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. AND LATE THIS EVENING THOSE CHANCES DIMINISH. THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GET NUDGED VERY SLIGHTLY AWAY
BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE ON
MONDAY...SO EXPECT SOME MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND THE FLOW DRIES OUT FOR NO CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM MODEL WANTS ANOTHER DAY (TUESDAY) OF AFTERNOON
TSTORMS IN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND THE EURO MODEL LESS SO. THE
TREND IS CLEARLY DRYING OUT. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A
RECOVERY AND REINSTATE THE MORE TYPICAL COASTAL LOW CLOUD
CONFIGURATION. AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR
EAST ONCE AGAIN AND PRODUCING MORE MONSOON FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
311550Z...COASTAL AREAS TO ABOUT 10 MILES INLAND SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY SOUTH OF KCRQ. BASES 1300 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2200 FEET
MSL...CLEARING AROUND 19Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING
AROUND 09Z. OVERNIGHT COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...ALOFT SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN FL100 AND FL250
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM KOKB TO KBUO. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...     RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY      MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY      MOUNTAINS.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
AND APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
555 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-010100-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
555 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL INDEX IS MODERATE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX IS LOW...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS
MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR MONDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL INDEX IS LOW...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1207 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

CAZ058-062-312000-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1207 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM PDT...

AT 1205 PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT LAGUNA...OR 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TECATE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THE STORM IS
CROSSING I-8 AT THIS TIME.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PINE VALLEY...MOUNT LAGUNA...
CANEBRAKE AND AGUA CALIENTE SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3300 11652 3296 11617 3270 11632 3271 11650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 187DEG 12KT 3278 11640

TARDY