Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011/

VERY IMPRESSIVE HEAT ONCE AGAIN OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWFA INTO AR WHERE SOME ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS ARE
OCCURRING. HOTTEST READINGS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF WHAT IS IN
EFFECT A SFC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVER CENTRAL MO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS. ALL IN ALL
MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KUNO HAS BROKEN THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH AT 108
DEGREES AS OF 3 PM.

CONVERGENCE ALONG A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AR INTO
NORTHEAST OK IS RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AR. AS WITH PAST
DAYS...OBVIOUS CONCERN IS LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER EASTERN OK AND AR IS GOING TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND IT IS HOPED THAT THE
CWFA WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY ZONAL FLOW...INITIALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...NORTH OF THE W-E UPPER RIDGE AXIS. A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
KS/CO BORDER WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BY
MIDDAY THU. THIS MAY ENHANCE DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE A BIT ON THU
WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY OVER
CNTRL MO.

SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MIDWEST WILL STILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. A SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN POTENTIALLY ENHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING SIGNIFICANTLY BY MON-TUE WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUE.
CONSENSUS RAW GUIDANCE BY WED ACTUALLY HAS BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOPE IT VERIFIES!

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF MAIN MCS FURTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE JLN TERMINAL DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAFS BUT BELIEVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
08-09Z SO HAVE NOT CONTINUED FURTHER EAST INTO SGF OR BBG. MAY SEE
SOME CONVECTION REFIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LINDENBERG

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS AND WARM LOWS FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK...

SITE...RECORD HIGH (YEAR)/WARM LOW (YEAR)

...WED AUG 3...

SGF...102 (1964/1980)/77 (1934)
JLN...101 (2010)/82 (1943)
VIH...104 (1964)/78 (2010)
UNO...103 (2010)/76 (2010)

...THU AUG 4...

SGF...102 (1964)/80 (1918)
JLN...102 (1956)/79 (1954)
VIH...99  (1897)/77 (2008)
UNO...104 (1964)/74 (2001)

...FRI AUG 5...

SGF...101 (1982)/75 (1954)
JLN...103 (1956)/82 (1954)
VIH...99  (1956)/77 (1982)
UNO...102 (2010)/77 (1954)

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ082-083-096>098-105-
     106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088>095-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
221 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...EXTREME.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

EXTREME EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.

DISCUSSION...

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
MAIN RISK WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED LOCALIZED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

MOZ094-040700-
LAWRENCE MO-
111 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 200
AM CDT...

AT 106 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF STOTTS CITY...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MONETT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STOTTS CITY BY 120 AM CDT.
  HOBERG BY 135 AM CDT.
  MOUNT VERNON BY 140 AM CDT.
  6 MILES SOUTH OF MILLER BY 145 AM CDT.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND 48 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3716 9406 3725 9382 3705 9373 3701 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 252DEG 19KT 3708 9402

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

KSZ101-040745-
CHEROKEE KS-
209 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 245
AM CDT...

AT 205 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAULKNER...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OSWEGO...
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HALLOWELL AND SHERWIN BY 215 AM CDT.
  SHERMAN BY 225 AM CDT.
  8 MILES WEST OF SKIDMORE AND 8 MILES WEST OF STIPPVILLE BY 230 AM
  CDT.
  WEST MINERAL BY 235 AM CDT.
  CARONA...6 MILES WEST OF ROSELAND AND 8 MILES WEST OF SCAMMON BY
  240 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3734 9508 3734 9477 3708 9491 3708 9508
      3710 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 195DEG 19KT 3716 9501

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

KSZ097-101-MOZ077-088-040815-
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
239 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BARTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF WEIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WACO BY 245 AM CDT.
  ASBURY AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHICOPEE BY 250 AM CDT.
  OPOLIS AND PITTSBURG BY 255 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3742 9479 3742 9447 3718 9462 3718 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 222DEG 27KT 3726 9473

GRIFFIN