Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

STARTING OFF THIS MORNING...ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING IN A RATHER
DISORGANIZED FASHION OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A BROAD
30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.  MUCAPES REMAIN MODERATE...ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/K
OR LESS...AND SO WHILE I THINK A FEW ELEVATED HAILERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE AN EXCEPTION
TO THE RULE.  SUSPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL DWINDLE A BIT STARTING
AROUND DAWN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND VEERS.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
OK/NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MIX NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...LIKELY
MAKING IT TO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING.  SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD A COUPLE THOUSAND JOULES OF MLCAPE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A EROSION
OF MUCH OF THE INHIBITION SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...LARGE SCALE SOURCES OF LIFT WILL BE TOUGH
TO COME BY...SO THINK THAT ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ITSELF FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANYTHING THAT WERE TO DEVELOP ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL
BE HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO YIELD A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM OR TWO.

BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION COMES LATER TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NW KANSAS AND NEBRASKA SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ON THE NOSE OF A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.  BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A FT. SCOTT TO SPRINGFIELD TO
WEST PLAINS LINE.  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MUCAPE AND SHEAR IN PLACE DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.

SIMILAR THINGS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH.  BEST CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE EXTREME
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA...OTHERWISE A VERY SUBSTANTIAL CAP/EML SHOULD
PRECLUDE PRECIP FOR MOST OF US.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.  THANKFULLY...RECENT FEW RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
INDICATED A COLD FRONT MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70/U.S. 54 ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON TUESDAY.  UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
RIDGE PROGGED TO CENTER ITSELF RIGHT OVER THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR.

BOXELL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE OZARKS. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ON
THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CONDITIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER
THE AERODROME WHEN CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR. BECAUSE OF THE
TRANSIENT AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS HAVE USED VCTS AND CB
FOR CURRENT TAFS.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-250045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
739 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED HAIL RISK.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ISOLATED STRONGER
  STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS
  OVER 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
  BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
  WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN ELEVATED
  RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
  DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WITH THESE STORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN PUSH THROUGH PORTIONS OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
  LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
  FLASH FLOODING.

  THERE IS THEN AT LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
  OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
  WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
  FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
  MISSOURI.

  MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS
  THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE
  MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE
  100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

KSZ101-240730-
CHEROKEE KS-
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF FAULKNER...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OSWEGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE FAULKNER...MELROSE AND TREECE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3700 9470 3699 9477 3700 9507 3700 9508
      3715 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 297DEG 28KT 3710 9522

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

KSZ073-MOZ066-240845-
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
301 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON AND SOUTHWESTERN VERNON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 257 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
XENIA TO FORT SCOTT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE FORT SCOTT...FULTON...REDFIELD...SHELDON
AND UNIONTOWN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3804 9461 3765 9419 3765 9462 3767 9462
      3768 9492 3788 9507 3804 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 301DEG 27KT 3791 9497 3782 9472

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

KSZ097-MOZ077-240900-
CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-
321 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BARTON AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 316 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARCADIA...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ENGLEVALE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARCADIA...GOLDEN CITY...LAMAR...LIBERAL
AND VERDELLA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3767 9462 3765 9461 3764 9408 3737 9408
      3759 9471 3767 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 286DEG 31KT 3765 9460

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
421 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

MOZ088-089-094-241000-
JASPER MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
421 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JASPER...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM
CDT...

AT 419 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF DUDENVILLE...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LOCKWOOD...MILLER AND MOUNT VERNON.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 58 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3731 9421 3735 9417 3735 9408 3744 9408
      3745 9407 3729 9362 3728 9361 3708 9361
      3701 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 307DEG 34KT 3735 9407

GAGAN