Wind Advisory 18, NWS Pocatello, ID

150 
WWUS75 KPIH 260308
NPWPIH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
908 PM MDT MON APR 25 2011



IDZ020-260415-
/O.EXP.KPIH.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-110426T0300Z/
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IDAHO FALLS...REXBURG...RIGBY...
CRATERS OF THE MOON...INL COMPLEX
908 PM MDT MON APR 25 2011

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 



$$

IDZ021-260415-
/O.EXP.KPIH.LW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110426T0300Z/
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCATELLO...BLACKFOOT...MASSACRE ROCKS
908 PM MDT MON APR 25 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
205 PM MDT MON APR 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER JET
PUNCHING THROUGH PACNW STATES PER WV IMAGERY. RADAR INDICATES
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE JET EVEN THOUGH CONVETIVE
INDICIES REMAIN MARGINAL. WINDS IN THE UPPER VALLEY HAVE
STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 9PM FOR THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. WINDS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY SO WILL KEEP LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE LOWER SNAKE. CONVECTIVE GUSTS COULD BE
FAIRLY STRONG. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT THOUGH LIKELY
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUSHED WINDS TOWARD HIGH NAM GUIDANCE BUT KEPT
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY...WOULD LIKE TO LET
CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE BEFORE PUSHING THE NEXT ADVISORY OUT. DO
NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH QPF PRESENT TO PRODUCE ADVISORY SNOWS SO HAVE
LEFT HEADLINES OUT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT SNOW TOTALS
ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY EVEN AS PRECIP
FOCUS MOVES TO AND THEN LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST
PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT FOR RIDGE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. EXPECTING FOCUS OF
LONG-TERM TO BE ON FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. AS
A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY. TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SEEMING TO HANG ON TO QPF
PERHAPS A BIT TOO LONG AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARISE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WITH A SHARPER LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MADE ONLY FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.  HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS TO THE TERMINALS
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOPING NEAR BOISE. LIFTED INDEX PROGS SHOW INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS...PROMPTING A
CB MENTION IN TERMINALS. WRF PROGS SHOW CONVECTION ENHANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY. TERMINALS MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
449 AM MDT MON APR 25 2011

IDZ017>025-031-032-261300-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
449 AM MDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR IN POWER AND BANNOCK COUNTY. SEE
THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS. WIND WILL WEAKEN
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WIND WILL INCREASE STRONGLY LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH MORE
COMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

MESSICK