Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
746 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH DURING SUNDAY, AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A VERY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, AND
WHICH WAS APPROACHING OUR AREA BEFORE SUNRISE, WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...IN THE 0830Z TO 12Z
TIME FRAME. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH 14Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
PRECEDING A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND IN FACT THE CONVECTIVE LINE
WAS MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

THE GFS WAS HAVING TROUBLE SHOWING THE INITIAL LINE OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z...BUT DID DRAMATICALLY INCREASE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z TO ITS CREDIT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS,
AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS MORNING...AND THAT THIS
HEAVY WEATHER WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE LINE IN THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO SOME TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN OVER A GIVEN LOCATION AS THE
ECHOES TRANSLATE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME BACK-BUILDING IN SOME INSTANCES. ALSO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXTANT AND OUR ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE
WATCHES NOW IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES LIKELY...WIND EVENTS
WILL BE HANDLED WITH CONVECTIVE PRODUCTS TODAY.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE PREVIOUSLY-
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH RESIDUAL RAIN
CHANCES EAST EARLY...OTHERWISE DRY OVERNIGHT. THEN...WITH A
FOLLOW-ON WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A TROUGH ALOFT
FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DUE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND THEN BE A BIT WARMER FOR
SATURDAY. OVERALL...MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF PLACING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTENDING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME SUNDAY, THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH FARTHER
OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH, THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA BY
LATE ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT
TRACKING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY, POPS ARE INCREASED AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART, HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS VARIABLE IFR IN BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
EXCEPTION KACY WITH LIFR IN STRATUS BUT THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW LATER THIS MORNING.

GRADIENT SSW WIND 12 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS THIS MORNING
WITH STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS FROM KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/ILG
SEWD TO KACY AND KMIV. LLWS THIS MORNING AS IN TAFS. NON CONVECTIVE
GRADIENT WIND AND GUSTS DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER 16Z.

SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A NEW
WATCH SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES ARD 14Z.

COOL FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO RANGE FROM 2000 UTC FROM KRDG TO
NEAR 0000 UTC AT KACY. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WEST WINDS COULD
GUST TO 25 KNOTS (THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MIDWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE)...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. THE GRADIENT
DROPS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK TO SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ANY MVFR CEILING SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER 0200-0400 UTC
FRIDAY...AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES MIXED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS POINT THE LOW LEVELS COULD BE
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. WLY GUSTS TO 25 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WIND THAN FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE NORTH...BUT AT THIS POINT
IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SCA IN PROGRESS MUCH OF THE WATERS.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY EARLY THIS MORNING
CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN  BIT
MORE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER WINDS REACH GALE
FORCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY LOW MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 FEET). MIXING THROUGH
THIS LAYER MAY BE DIFFICULT...AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 35 KNOTS
THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER MAY ALLOW ACCESS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS WINDS. THE TIMING OF
THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 1500 TO 1800 UTC).
IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
MAY BE DELAWARE BAY (CLOSER TO THE LAND INFLUENCE) AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. RIGHT NOW...THIS WINDOW IS FAIRLY SMALL FOR A GALE
WARNING. BASED ON THIS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY IN
PLACE...WITH A SHORT FUSED UPGRADE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT GRADIENT DROPS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THE
EVENING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDING TIME MAY NEED TO BE
PUSHED BACK ON DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE LONG DURATION
SOUTHERLY SWELL PRODUCES WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. IT COULD TAKE WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SEAS TO
COME DOWN BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE OCEAN MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
OR TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD START TO COME
DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS OVER ALL WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT SEAS OVER THE OCEAN. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS SHOULD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1130Z...BLAKESLEE 1.28 INCHES.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS FOR
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT EVEN SO RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH...LOCALLY ONE AND A HALF INCHES...ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY.
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. BOUNDARY
LAYER THETA E CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG OVER OUR WATCH
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS IT IS CURRENTLY CONSTITUTED GEOGRAPHICALLY...EXCEPT BROUGHT
FORWARD IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN DEVELOPING INTO OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS
MONTH, AND SOME QUICK RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD REACH OR
EXCEED BANKFULL. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OF A FEW
HOURS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
     015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HAYES 745A
MARINE...MEOLA/DRAG 745A
HYDROLOGY...745A

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NJZ008-010-012-015-290830-
MORRIS-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-007-009-PAZ054-055-061-062-290830-
SUSSEX-WARREN-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021-023-PAZ060-067>071-
290830-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-BERKS-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ013-019-020-022-027-290830-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ014-025-026-290830-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ024-290830-
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450>455-290830-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-290830-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
430 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ054-055-060-061-281045-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-
549 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...CARBON...LEHIGH AND
MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 548 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 42 MILES NORTHWEST
OF READING TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF READING TO 18 MILES WEST OF
READING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
WOMELSDORF...STRAUSSTOWN AROUND 600 AM...WANAMAKERS...NEW MAHONING
AROUND 615 AM...WHITE HAVEN...WEATHERLY AROUND 630 AM AND BLAKESLEE
AROUND 645 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 4067 7584 4032 7616 4050 7644 4054 7618
      4060 7605 4059 7603 4064 7600 4073 7581
      4075 7580 4084 7594 4091 7600 4100 7575
      4105 7578 4110 7577 4114 7570 4113 7564
      4123 7553

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
612 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ016>018-021-PAZ067-068-070-071-281115-
CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
KENT MD-MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-
612 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMDEN...CECIL...CHESTER...
CUMBERLAND...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...KENT...MONTGOMERY...NEW
CASTLE...PHILADELPHIA...QUEEN ANNE'S AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 605 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES NORTH OF
BALTIMORE TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BALTIMORE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
MOUNT VERNON...HOMEVILLE AROUND 630 AM...MARSHALLTON...COCHRANVILLE
AROUND 645 AM...WEST DEPTFORD...BRYN MAWR AROUND 700 AM...SOUTH
PHILADELPHIA AND ROXBOROUGH AROUND 715 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 3932 7619 3942 7602 3951 7599 3953 7600
      3956 7610 3972 7624 3976 7609 3991 7601
      4016 7516 3983 7508 3948 7514 3939 7545
      3946 7555 3950 7557 3957 7553 3958 7556
      3946 7558 3942 7553 3937 7551 3914 7628

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

MDZ008-NJZ007-009-PAZ060>062-067>069-281115-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-
MONTGOMERY PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-WARREN NJ-
623 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...BUCKS...CECIL...
CHESTER...HUNTERDON...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND WARREN
COUNTIES...

AT 618 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LANCASTER TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER TO 16 MILES WEST OF
ELKTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
MOUNT VERNON...HOMEVILLE AROUND 630 AM...WYOMISSING...WYOMISSING
HILLS AROUND 645 AM...FLEETWOOD...LAURELDALE AROUND 700 AM...TELFORD
AND EMMAUS AROUND 715 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 3978 7607 3987 7601 3992 7601 4003 7595
      4011 7595 4014 7590 4030 7612 4077 7550
      4067 7519 4041 7504 3970 7611 3974 7614

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
735 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ055-062-068-069-281230-
BUCKS PA-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
735 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...HUNTERDON...MERCER...
MIDDLESEX...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORRIS...NORTHAMPTON...SOMERSET...
SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 731 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MOUNT POCONO TO 15 MILES WEST OF NEWTON TO 10 MILES EAST OF EASTON
TO 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SERGEANTSVILLE...SAND BROOK AROUND 745
AM...CRANDON LAKES...SKILLMAN AROUND 800 AM...HIGH POINT...SOUTH
BRUNSWICK AROUND 815 AM...EAST HANOVER AND BUTLER AROUND 830 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4104 7449 4097 7427 4089 7427
      4089 7433 4074 7436 4067 7445 4066 7440
      4059 7444 4059 7429 4034 7440 4017 7529
      4096 7511 4125 7527 4126 7514 4116 7516
      4109 7501 4115 7491 4131 7480 4135 7468

HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
817 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

PAZ060-067-281315-
BERKS PA-CHESTER PA-
817 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO BERKS AND
WESTERN CHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 815 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 45 MPH. ON
THIS TRACK, THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BERKS AND
WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 915 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS, AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS, MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4053 7633 4054 7618 4060 7605 4059 7603
      4064 7600 4068 7591 4051 7565 4027 7569
      3974 7602 3973 7613 3987 7601 3992 7601
      4003 7595 4011 7595 4014 7590 4049 7642

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

NJZ013-014-020-281400-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
900 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 856 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR EAST FREEHOLD...
FREEHOLD...HOWELL...FARMINGDALE AROUND 905 AM...LINCROFT...TINTON
FALLS...HOLMDEL...EATONTOWN AROUND 910 AM...RED BANK AND FAIR HAVEN
AROUND 915 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4029 7397 4007 7428 4018 7446 4031 7437
      4039 7425 4043 7425 4045 7422 4044 7419
      4046 7418 4045 7416 4046 7412 4041 7399
      4047 7402 4047 7399 4041 7396

HEAVENER