Alert archive / New Jersey / Small Craft Advisories in 2011
Small Craft Advisory 77, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this small craft advisory at Oct 15, 2011, 6:32 PM EDT. It was in force for 42 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 15, 2011, 6:32 PM EDT (22:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 17, 2011, 12:51 PM EDT
- In force
- 42 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
610 WHUS71 KPHI 152232 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 632 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ANZ452>455-160900- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-111016T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.111015T2232Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 632 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ450-451-160900- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-111016T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.111015T2232Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 632 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-160900- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-111016T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.111015T2232Z-111017T1000Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 632 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. * SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE BELOW JUST ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
6 follow-up statements
183 WHUS71 KPHI 160735 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 335 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ANZ450-451-162100- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.111017T0200Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 335 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT. GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. && $$ ANZ452>455-162100- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 335 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-162100- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 335 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. * SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
645 WHUS71 KPHI 162014 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ANZ450-451-170400- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111016T2200Z/ /O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0012.111017T0200Z-111017T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0023.111016T2200Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6PM UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ452>455-170400- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-170400- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. * SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RPW
524 WHUS71 KPHI 170002 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 802 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ANZ450-451-171000- /O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 802 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ452>455-171000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 802 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-171000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 802 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. * SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RPW
104 WHUS71 KPHI 170731 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 331 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ANZ450-451-171945- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-111017T1000Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T2200Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 331 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. * SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ452>455-171700- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 331 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. * SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ430-431-171500- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1500Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 331 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. * SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
745 WHUS71 KPHI 171427 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1027 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ANZ430-431-171530- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1500Z/ DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 1027 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE BAY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. $$ ANZ452>455-171700- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 1027 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. * SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ450-451-172200- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T2200Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 1027 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
288 WHUS71 KPHI 171651 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1251 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ANZ450-451-172200- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0078.111017T1700Z-111017T2200Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 1251 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WINDS...WEST AROUND 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. * SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ ANZ452>455-171800- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-111017T1700Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 1251 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 15, 3:23 PM EDT, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 15, 3:23 PM EDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ON THIS STALLED
FRONT, MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN
BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS MIXING DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER...
ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE GUSTINESS ASPECT...TOWARD AND JUST AFTER
DARK. BOUNDARY LAYER DISCONNECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE WANING OF
TURBULENT MIXING AND THE RESULTANT LOSS OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX
SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK...ALTHOUGH 925 AND 850 HPA WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TONIGHT. THE DIURNAL CHARACTER TO THE STRATOCUMULUS, WHICH
IS BROKEN NORTH AND SCATTERED OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES...WITH CLEAR
SKIES SOUTH, SHOWS THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH RATHER
RAPIDLY WITH THE CESSATION OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WERE SOME
LIGHT ECHOES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES REACHING THE SURFACE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. NO
MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NORTH
EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND SOME WIND TONIGHT...NO FOG IS EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS AND IS WHOLLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
DRY AIR AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LEAD TO A
FORECAST OF MINIMAL CLOUDINESS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT BY MID MORNING...AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A REMNANT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 HPA. SO, AS DIURNAL HEATING INITIATES,
BOUNDARY LAYER RECONNECTION MAY DRIVE SOME GUSTINESS LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AT MIDDAY, PERHAPS TO THE UPPER TEENS OR LOWER 20 KNOT
RANGE. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE
FRONT WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY TEND TO GROW INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 20 KNOT
RANGE IF ENOUGH UNEVEN SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. HOWEVER...BATTLING
THIS IS THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON, AS BROAD
ASCENT AT UPPER LEVELS COUPLES WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
LATER IN THE DAY, FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH OVER OUR WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. IF THEY FORM, THEY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY SCATTERED.
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE...AND THE NEARLY IDENTICAL
SOLUTIONS IN THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM LEND CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
ADOPTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND EVENLY OFF THE
12Z SOUNDINGS SO ANY DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO MODEL PHYSICS
NUANCES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BOTH OF WHICH
HAVE SOME FORCING MECHANISMS GOING FOR THEM, BUT NOT ALL
COLLABORATIVELY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GENERAL THEME THAT THE TIMING AND
DOWNSLOPING WILL WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS, WE ARE SEEING DECENT
FORECAST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AND THE PROX TO THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE H2.5 JET TO GIVE THE SHOWERS IN QUOTES A CHANCE TO
MAKE IT TO THE COAST BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. NO BIG CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF POPS AND IF ANYTHING WE WERE SLIGHTLY
MORE BULLISH THAN STAT GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE MID SHIFT'S LEAD
THE SWRLY SFC FLOW PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP
AND WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. IT SHOULD PE PRETTY DRY IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD LEVEL TO
PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING NEAR THE FRONT. WE SUPPOSE THERE
COULD BE SOME CI ABOVE GIVEN THE JET ALOFT WILL STILL BE AROUND.
MAX TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND LATEST STAT GUIDANCE.
THEN THE NEXT PCPN SHOT COMES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE FORECAST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT (ALBEIT NOT
ROBUST) AND LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE MID
LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND
WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE THE EXIT RGN OF THE H2.5 JET, THE FORECAST
DIVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG EITHER. THUS THE INCREASING BUT
NONETHELESS ON THE LIGHT SIDE QPF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES APPEARS LOGICAL. WE FOLLOWED THIS PREMISE WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS NORTH. THE GFS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT THRU
OUR CWA BUT NEITHER THE 00Z EURO (NONE AT ALL) OR WRF-NMM (YES
SOME BUT NOT COINCIDENTAL WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE) CONCUR AND WE
DID NOT INCLUDE IT.
TUESDAY MIGHT EVOLVE INTO THE LULL DAY IF MODEL TIMING HOLDS AS THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN
TIME. FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S, SO NO HOME GROWN
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCES BASED ON
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES AND THE GENERAL INCREASE IN TIMING ERRORS
AT THIS FORECAST JUNCTURE. THIS TRANSPIRED INTO A CHANCE NORTH
EARLY FOR A SLOWER WARM FRONT PASSAGE AND MAINLY WEST LATE FOR A
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE LOW. STAT GUIDANCE JUMPED FROM OVERNIGHT AND
APPEARS LOGICAL GIVEN THAT IF THIS WERE JULY, WE WOULD BE IN THE
80S.
THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER EVENT OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO
THE TRACK AND THE 00Z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A WESTWARD LEANING
INFERENCE DID NOT CLEAR THE WATERS. THE LATEST 12Z CAN GGEM LOOKS
LIKE ONE OF ITS DEEPENING BIAS ERROR RUNS AND WAS NOT USED.
MEANWHILE THE UKMET TRENDED WEST OF THE EURO. THE 12Z EURO ITSELF
AND GFS NARROWED THE GAP SOMEWHAT AND A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
REGARDLESS WITH SUCH A STRONG TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME DEEP CONVECTION IF WE GET INTO OR NEAR THE WARM SECTOR.
THEN FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
BUILDING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA IN SORT OF A ROUNDABOUT FASHION
WAITING FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEPART, FIRST SOUTH THEN NORTHEAST
TOWARD US. THE ROUTE WOULD KEEP US IN A PREDICTED GRADIENT UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND MORE
LIKELY SOME LAKE EFFECT INDUCED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME IN OUR CWA.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A FREEZE OR MUCH FROST YET IN OUR CWA, BEST
CHANCE BASED ON THIS MODEL RUN WOULD COME SATURDAY MORNING.
NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT TEMPERATURES AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW'S UNCERTAIN TRACK AND WE PRETTY
MUCH SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE. BEYOND THAT WE WENT BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MINS ON SATURDAY, OTHERWISE FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC AND
MEX MOS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND
SUNDAY.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS...BROKEN OVER OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES AT MID
AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH TO CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AS
HEATING ENDS AND A MORE STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENSUES. A WEAK FRONT
HEADING IN FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE PICTURE...PERHAPS LOWERING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE WINDS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE DUE TO
THE PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT, THANKS TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN
CANADA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS WILL LESSEN...AND GUSTS
WILL DROP OUT...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETTLES. AN INTERIM LESS-GUSTY PERIOD WAS USED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AROUND SUNSET, THEN A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 KNOTS OR A
BIT LESS WAS USED FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN, WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER RECONNECTION BY MID SUNDAY
MORNING, SOME GUSTS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY PICK BACK UP BY LATE
MORNING, PERHAPS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD CAUSE STRONGER GUSTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES, WITH GUSTS IN THE
MID OR EVEN UPPER 20S KNOT RANGE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN FRONT OF
AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT COULD SERVE TO DIMINISH
THIS, THOUGH, SO CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE.
WITH A DRY LOWER AIRMASS...NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED. LOWER CONFIDENCE THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START PRODUCING
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY WILL THIS DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS NORTHERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
THEN SHOULD RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT WIND IS ALSO
LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED EVERYWHERE FOR THIS EVENING...
ALTHOUGH GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE LESS LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THE CURRENT ENDING OF TIME OF
03Z WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY, BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY DEPENDING ON
DEVELOPMENTS. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS...UNTIL 05Z...FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, BASED ON THE GFS 925
HPA WIND DEPICTION OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THERE AT 00Z AND 06Z.
AFTER THE GALE CONDITIONS DROP OUT DURING TONIGHT...THEY WILL NEED
TO BE REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY AS SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WAS MOSTLY USED...WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN AND 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING DROPPING
AS THE WINDS LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT FRONT. THE WRF-NMM
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ IS NOT GETTING ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS
OR ECMWF. EVEN IF RIGHT IN THE INFERENCE OF GALES, THE NEUTRAL TO
WARMER AIR OVER THE COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN AS EFFICIENTLY.
WE SHOULD GO SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND PART OF
TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD, THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN AND THUS THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED FORECAST AS THIS
LOW PASSES THROUGH OR NEAR THE AREA WATERS SHOULD BE VIEWED AS LOW
CONFIDENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW'S DEPARTURE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUS
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY LIKELY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WE
MIGHT REACH OR COME CLOSE TO GALE WARNING CRITERIA WITH IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM.../
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/
MARINE...GIGI/Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 15, 3:31 PM EDT, 3 hours 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-161945- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE TRACK AND INSTABILITY UNCERTAINTIES, THE CHANCES FOR THEM IN GENERAL AND STRONGER ONES IN PARTICULAR WOULD INCREASE THE FARTHER WEST THE LOW TRACKS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ452>455-161945- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ450-451-161945- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-161945- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 331 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New Jersey, 2011Every small craft advisory in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.