Small Craft Advisory 75, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

469 
WHUS71 KPHI 040153
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

ANZ430-431-450>455-041400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.111004T1600Z-111005T2200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
953 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO
6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON
  DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

898 
WHUS71 KPHI 040738
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

ANZ430-431-450>455-042000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.111004T1600Z-111005T2200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT 2
  TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

744 
WHUS71 KPHI 041942
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

ANZ450>455-051000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUILDING TO 4 TO 6
  FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-051000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111005T2200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...1 TO 3 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MEOLA

272 
WHUS71 KPHI 050748
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

ANZ430-431-052100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
348 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE MOST
  FREQUENT GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...THE MOST WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
  SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-052100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
348 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-052100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
348 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

762 
WHUS71 KPHI 051928
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

ANZ450-060800-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
328 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 6 PM TONIGHT AND 2 AM THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-060800-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
328 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 8 PM TONIGHT AND 4 AM THURSDAY
  WITH ANY 5 FOOT SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-060800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
328 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 8 PM TONIGHT AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
  SEAS OF 5 TO POSSIBLY 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY
  MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE DURING MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-060800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
328 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...1 TO 3 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 8 PM TONIGHT AND 2 AM THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

909 
WHUS71 KPHI 060118
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

ANZ452>455-060800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
918 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-060800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
918 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-060800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
918 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-060800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
918 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

562 
WHUS71 KPHI 060702
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

ANZ450-060815-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
302 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

ANZ430-060815-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
302 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

ANZ431-061200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
302 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-062000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
302 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-061400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
302 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

488 
WHUS71 KPHI 061029
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

ANZ431-061130-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
629 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

ANZ452>455-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
629 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-061400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
629 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

337 
WHUS71 KPHI 061247
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

ANZ452>455-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
847 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 8 FEET...SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-061400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
847 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

640 
WHUS71 KPHI 061426
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1026 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

ANZ451-061530-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1026 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...



$$

ANZ452>455-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1026 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

254 
WHUS71 KPHI 061914
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011


ANZ452>455-062015-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111006T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
314 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

ATLANTIC WATERS SEAS OFF DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ARE NOW
AROUND 4 FEET AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

$$

DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER VIRGINIA
WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
HUDSON BAY IS THEN FORECAST TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST, REACH OUR
LATITUDE ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WERE LOCATED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE
DELMARVA WERE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEASTERN PA. AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO SWING TO THE EAST AND THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY,
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY ABOUT MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR THUNDER TO OCCUR...AND CAPES WERE NON- EXISTENT. SHOWER
INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHTS
ACTIVITY, WITH A CONSEQUENCE OF LESS QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL. ONLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OF GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY NORTH...SHADING DOWN TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH.
LOCAL AMOUNTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...AS WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER
THAN THE RECENT PAST.

CLOUDS CIRCULATING NORTHWARD AROUND BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOWS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING THERE.

MOS TEMPERATURES AGAIN APPEARED TO BE WORKING WELL AND WERE
ACCEPTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S, EXCEPT AROUND 50
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER/POPS WERE ARE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS ARE AT HAND,
AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA DURING
TONIGHT. HIGH CHANCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE RETAINED EARLY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL...DROPPING OFF TO LOW CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THOUGH...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED VERY
REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S...WITH NORTHWEST OR
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE WAS NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN INITIALIZATION PROWESS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF-NMM OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. WE SUPPOSE A 3 TO 4 SD
ANOMALOUSLY CLOSED LOW AT 500MB WILL THAT DO TO THE MODELS. FOR
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND A WRF GFS COMPROMISE SEGUED TO A GFS EURO COMPROMISE.

WE KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE 500MB LOW WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS A WEAKENING TROWAL THAT HAS
TO RUN ITS COURSE THROUGH OUR CWA. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LOW. BUT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FORECAST TO START
ROCKETING, THE OVERALL IMPACT EVEN WHERE IT DOES RAIN SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

BECAUSE THE GFS PULLS THE SYSTEM OUT FASTER, ITS WARMER AND
INCREASES THE WINDS FIRST. HERE WE USED THE LATEST ECMWF TO
COMPROMISE IN BOTH THE EJECTION OF THE COLD CORE AND THE INCREASE
IN THE WINDS. WHILE STAT GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR A BIT HIGH WITH THE
MAX TEMPS, THE DOWNSLOPING WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DO THE
TRICK. WE DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEM. SPEAKING OF WINDS, WHILE
THEY SHOULD BECOME BRISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT ANY ATTEMPT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP TO
GET INTO OUR CWA WILL BE RUNNING ON FUMES BEFORE EVEN REACHING OUR
CWA BORDER. THE FORECAST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH THE ENDING
OF ANY SUN BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD FINALLY PUT THIS EVENT TO BED.
HERE THE SLOW BIAS OF THE WRF-NMM WAS NOT USED AS THERE IS PRETTY
SOLID CONSENSUS BY THE OTHER MODELS THAT ITS DONE FOR US. WE LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER MOS DATASETS AS THERE IS NO FCST CAA FOR TUE NGT.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THE GRADIENT WOULD NORMALLY INFER. WE
CURBED OUR ENTHUSIASM A BIT BECAUSE THE WRF-NMM STILL IS FORECASTING
15 TO 20 KTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND EVEN IF ITS TOO SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION, THOSE SPEEDS EVEN FOR HALF A NIGHT DO SEND UP A FLAG.

A MILDER DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SECONDARY
TROF MOVING THROUGH. IT LOOKS FAIRLY MOISTURE AND OMEGA STARVED AS
ITS BIGGEST EFFECT WILL BE FELT COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF
COOLER AIR SPILLING SOUTH FROM CANADA. SO STAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
LOOK THAT BAD FOR MAX TEMPS WED, UNLESS SKIES ARE CLOUDIER THAN
FORECAST, IN THE PRE TROF ENVIRONMENT.

THEN AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH WE MIGHT COME
CLOSE TO FROSTY LEVELS IN THE POCONOS ON THURSDAY MORNING, A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NJ PINE BARREN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRETTY CLOSE. FROM THERE
OUR AIR MASS WILL MODIFY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING LITTLE AND A CLOSED RIDGE THE
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IMPROVED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTED FROM JUST SW OF THE AREA TO SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ERODED AWAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE DELMARVA
WAS MOVING NORTH, AND COULD CREATE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERN
PA LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY PASS OVER SOME TAF SITES. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DEVELOP AS THE LOWS...SURFACE
AND ALOFT...MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS, AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES TO A LESSER
EXTENT, WILL LOWER BRIEFLY IN AND NEAR THE HEAVIER CELLS, PROBABLY
TO MARGINAL VFR. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW DIMINISH WITH ITS EASTWARD PASSAGE.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 8 KNOTS OR SO
BY LATE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
EVEN IF SHOWERS WERE TO AFFECT OUR TERMINALS ON TUESDAY, ITS
DOUBTFUL THAT THEY WOULD CAUSE VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR
LEVELS. THEN FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING WE MIGHT HAVE
TO START BEING CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS ON THE WATERS...BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WILL
EXHIBIT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE
DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE A PERIOD GREATER THAN 10
SECONDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH INCREASING THE WINDS AND ALSO HAS
A TIGHTER FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE
WE DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO DISCOUNT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECAST ITS FAST BIAS MAKES US WONDER IF ITS BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY TO THE AREA WATERS ON TUESDAY DAY. A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IT TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY AND THEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR WILL PROVIDE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING. THERE IS
THEN GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A SCA SUPPORTING GRADIENT. WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DECREASE BELOW SCA LIMITS ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TRAJECTORY OF THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA WOULD KEEP ANY SCA
LEVEL SWELLS SOUTH OF OUR AREA WATERS, SO SOME FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE DETERMINISTIC MARINE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATEST TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE DELAWARE RIVER AND TAKING A COUPLE
OF TENTHS OFF OF DBOFS GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL THE LAST
COUPLE OF EVENINGS) WOULD BRING THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN THE
TIDAL DELAWARE ABOUT A QUARTER OF A FOOT SHORT OF THE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING THRESHOLD. ELSEWHERE THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WIGGLE
ROOM IS A BIT LARGER. NO STATEMENTS OR OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED
THIS MORNING. WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DECREASING WE HAVE
GUARDED OPTIMISM THAT WE ARE DONE WITH TIDAL FLOODING WITH THIS
LATEST SPRING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...GAINES/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>019-023>026-PAZ067>071-
040745-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
343 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-020>022-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-040745-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
343 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR FROST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-040745-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
343 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
203 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

DEZ002>004-MDZ020-NJZ021>025-032000-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...
OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
203 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2011

...A FEW COLD AIR FUNNELS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 200 PM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW
AREAS OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND A LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD
AIR FUNNEL IN A FEW SPOTS. THESE ARE TYPICALLY VERY WEAK AND
REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. AT 145 PM, THERE WAS A REPORT OF A
VERY WEAK COLD AIR FUNNEL NEAR THE LAUREL, DELAWARE AREA. AGAIN,
THESE ARE RATHER WEAK AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

GORSE/MEOLA