River Flood Warning 68, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

259 
WGUS41 KPHI 170709
FLWPHI
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
309 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY...
  ASSUNPINK CREEK AT TRENTON AFFECTING MERCER COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

NJC021-171309-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110417T2200Z/
/TACN4.2.ER.110417T0409Z.110417T1200Z.110417T1600Z.NO/
309 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE ASSUNPINK CREEK AT TRENTON.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.4 FEET BY THIS 
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MULBERRY STREET FLOODS

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

ASSUNPINK CREEK
  TRENTON          8.5    9.32  SUN 2 AM    10.4  SUN 8 AM 

&&

584 
WGUS81 KPHI 171304
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ASSUNPINK CREEK AT
TRENTON... 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

&&

NJC021-172000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110417T2000Z/
/TACN4.2.ER.110417T0409Z.110417T0915Z.110417T1400Z.NO/
904 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ASSUNPINK CREEK AT TRENTON.
* AT 8:30 AM, THE STAGE WAS 8.59 FEET AND FALLING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER LEVEL FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  MORNING.
$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

ASSUNPINK CREEK
  TRENTON          8.5    8.59  SUN 830 AM    CRESTED

&&

IOVINO

801 
WGUS81 KPHI 171416
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ASSUNPINK CREEK
AT TRENTON...

&&

NJC021-171446-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110417T2000Z/
/TACN4.2.ER.110417T0409Z.110417T0915Z.110417T1242Z.NO/
1016 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ASSUNPINK CREEK AT TRENTON.
* AT 9:15 AM, THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET AND FALLING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

ASSUNPINK CREEK
  TRENTON          8.5    8.26  SUN 915 AM    CRESTED 

&&

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1113 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE MAIN
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL HERE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY PULLING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
EAST- NORTHEASTWARD PATH. AREAS OF CONVECTION STILL EXIST IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND ARE MOVING EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THINGS
ARE STARTING TO WIND DOWN AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE TORNADO
WATCH AT THIS TIME. SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE REMAINING STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN AND WITH THE
HIGHEST NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED WE HAVE
DECIDED TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY, AS WELL.

SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS WILL CLEAR
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS THE REGION AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE
PATTERN BECOMING ZONAL IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
TROUGH SHOULD DIG OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY.

WE WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR LATE SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
1200 UTC NAM WAS ACTUALLY INDICTING LIFTED INDEX VALUES A BIT
BELOW ZERO AT THAT TIME AND CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 400 J/KG. THE
GFS IS LESS UNSTABLE. FOR NOW, WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND
WE WILL SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITHOUT MUCH OF A PUSH
BEHIND IT, THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON TUESDAY. AS IS COMMON WITH
SUCH FRONTS AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING ITS TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS RATHER LOW. WE WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE UNSETTLED BUT WILL ALSO FEATURE A
WARM UP AROUND WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST
BREAKS DOWN, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS
THE U.S. THIS MAY THEN TRY TO AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS TROUGHING MAY DIG ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO THE MIDWEST.
HPC UTILIZED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN AN INCREASING PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THIS IS TO PARTIALLY CORRECT FOR THE GENERAL FAST BIAS OF THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WE INITIALIZED THE DATABASE WITH HPC
GUIDANCE THAN MADE SOME TWEAKS BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION.

BASED ON THE ABOVE, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITTING MOSTLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
A RATHER WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN
BECOMING STRETCHED WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW,
WE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC TO SLIGHT CHC RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
POPS THEN ERODING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE TIED TO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR
WEST AS IT ROLES EASTWARD, SO FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH SHOWERS
INSTEAD OF RAIN. IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY, STRONG WAA IS
FORECAST TO BOOST 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR +18C. THIS ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE AND INCREASED MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM
THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON EASTWARD /COOLER ALONG THE COAST THOUGH AS
THE SURFACE WINDS MAY BE TO SOUTHERLY FOR AWHILE/.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OUR AREA. GIVEN THE
WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHC OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA, IT SHOULD TEND TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO BE
PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SURFACE HIGH AND ULTIMATELY WE MAY HAVE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
OCCURRING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY WITH THE CHC OF SHOWERS /OVERRUNNING RAIN?/. WE STARTED
TO INCREASE THE POPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THAT SATURDAY. THERE
HOWEVER IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME, THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHC
RANGE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WITH MAINLY
MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND WILL SLOWLY TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING CB
IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. WINDS WILL TURN OVER TO THE WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK
IN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. BOTTOM LINE...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR OVERNIGHT...THEN THEY WILL GET BETTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
STALL NEAR OR CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL OF
OUR MARINE AREAS. GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALL
AREAS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS MIGHT PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OR NEAR OUR
AREA WATERS LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
GENERATED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MIGHT EFFECT OUR OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE BEST LIFT AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES THIS EVENING.

THE 1200 UTC NAM IS GIVING US ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE 1200 UTC GFS IS ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH LOWER THAN THE 1200 UTC NAM. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF FAVORS THE
GFS NEAR THE COAST BUT IS ONLY NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE FROM HPC, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR
REGION, FOLLOWING A RAINFALL PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 1200
UTC GFS. AS A RESULT, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE FOR
NORTHERN DELAWARE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AS SHOULD MOST OF THE LARGER STREAMS AND CREEKS.
IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS THAT MAY FLOOD IN THIS
EVENT ARE SMALL STREAMS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ROADWAY FLOODING
IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS SOME STORM DRAINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE VOLUME OF RAINWATER IN THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EXPECTED, MAYBE FLOODING WON/T BE A PROBLEM, BUT JUST TOO
SOON TO TELL SO THE ADVISORIES WILL BE LEFT AS IS UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE METEOROLOGY.

THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS EVENINGS/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, OUR PART OF RARITAN BAY,
DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SIMILARITIES IN STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE TO THE DECEMBER 1, 2010
EVENT IN WHICH THE HIGH TIDE DEPARTURES AVERAGED AROUND 2 FEET,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON AND THE POORLY TIMED
COINCIDENTAL HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE
INCREASED THE RISK. THE EASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WOULD PLACE THE GREATEST RISK FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IN
DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. IF THE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SOONER, THE LEAST CHANCE WOULD BE
TOWARD NYC IN RARITAN BAY AND NORTH COASTAL NEW JERSEY. OUR LOCAL
STUDY PROCEDURE IS FORECASTING TIDAL DEPARTURES CLOSE TO 2.0 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH FOR MOST PLACES IS BORDERLINE BETWEEN MINOR AND
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE EXCEPTION IS UPPER
DELAWARE BAY WHERE WE WOULD CLEARLY BE IN THE MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING CATEGORY AND LIKELY ALSO THE DELAWARE RIVER.

THIS WILL BE A ONE TIDE CYCLE EVENT AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BY THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE WINDS WILL COME
CLOSE TO SHIFTING IN THE DELAWARE RIVER AS THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS
OCCURRING TONIGHT WHICH CERTAINLY WOULD HELP. |

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-180445-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-180445-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-PAZ070-071-180445-
NEW CASTLE-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-180445-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ016>019-180445-
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-180445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-180445-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLOOD            RICHLANDTOWN            40.47N  75.32W
04/16/2011                   BUCKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            URBAN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AT RICHLANDTOWN PIKE AND
            EBERT ROAD

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAUREL                  38.55N  75.57W
04/16/2011                   SUSSEX             DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0905 PM     FLOOD            WILLINGBORO             40.03N  74.87W
04/16/2011                   BURLINGTON         NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH WATER ACROSS BEVERLEY
            RANCOCAS ROAD

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPRINGTOWN              40.56N  75.29W
04/16/2011  M61 MPH          BUCKS              PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 PM     FLOOD            BEAR                    39.62N  75.68W
04/16/2011                   NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MODERATE ROAD FLOODING IN BEAR AT ROUTES 40 AND 72.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100090 PHI1100092 PHI1100093 PHI1100091 PHI1100094

VJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1019 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027-170300-
ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
MIDDLESEX NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1019 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 1016 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PERTH
AMBOY TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ATLANTIC CITY. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THIS LINE.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS LINE. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS, MOVE INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3981 7407 3952 7425 3950 7433 3953 7440
      3949 7438 3947 7429 3942 7433 3937 7441
      3936 7462 4004 7433 4060 7435 4060 7423
      4057 7420 4047 7426 4041 7399 4047 7401
      4047 7399 4041 7396

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

DEZ002-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-021>023-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
067>071-170445-
ATLANTIC NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-
CHESTER PA-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1048 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WILL AFFECT EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELAWARE BAY SHORE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...

AT 1040 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 45 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AROUND 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SCRANTON TO 10 MILES EAST OF LEHIGHTON TO 10 MILES
SOUTH OF CAMDEN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER...MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 30
MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS WEATHER NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FLOODING DUE TO
RAINFALL...TIDAL FLOODING...AND WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH BOTH
IN AND OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE IN A PLACE THAT IS SAFE FROM
FLOODING...PLEASE STAY INDOORS.

LAT...LON 4116 7516 4109 7501 4122 7487 4018 7453
      3927 7483 3917 7513 3929 7527 3924 7538
      3909 7540 3901 7532 3887 7560 3933 7546
      3924 7538 3928 7530 3938 7544 3978 7531
      4074 7565 4113 7567 4125 7550 4126 7514

MPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1053 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

DEZ001-NJZ015>019-PAZ069>071-170700-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1053 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A NEAR RECORD TIDAL SURGE TO AFFECT THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER OVERNIGHT...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A FULL MOON WILL PRODUCE MAJOR
FLOODING IN THE TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN TRENTON
AND DELAWARE CITY LATE TONIGHT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS
FORECASTING A WATER LEVEL OF NEAR 10.5 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, WHICH OCCURS AT 112 AM SUNDAY MORNING AT
PHILADELPHIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE FLOODING ALONG THE TIDAL
SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.

THE LAST TIME THE DELAWARE RIVER AT PHILADELPHIA REACHED 10.5 FEET
WAS BACK ON NOVEMBER 25, 1950.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES ARE URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF WATER LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

JJM/MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CECILTON                39.40N  75.87W
04/16/2011                   CECIL              MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN FROM NORTHEAST TO WEST OF CECILTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100098

VJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLOOD            RICHLANDTOWN            40.47N  75.32W
04/16/2011                   BUCKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            URBAN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AT RICHLANDTOWN PIKE AND
            EBERT ROAD

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAUREL                  38.55N  75.57W
04/16/2011                   SUSSEX             DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0905 PM     FLOOD            WILLINGBORO             40.03N  74.87W
04/16/2011                   BURLINGTON         NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH WATER ACROSS BEVERLEY
            RANCOCAS ROAD

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPRINGTOWN              40.56N  75.29W
04/16/2011  M61 MPH          BUCKS              PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 PM     FLOOD            BEAR                    39.62N  75.68W
04/16/2011                   NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MODERATE ROAD FLOODING IN BEAR AT ROUTES 40 AND 72.

1000 PM     FLOOD            PLUMSTEAD TWP           40.38N  75.12W
04/16/2011                   BUCKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RT 32 AND PT PLEASANT PIKE FLOODED AND A MUDSLIDE WITH
            A PARTIAL ROAD BLOCKAGE.

1001 PM     FLOOD            EAST ROCKHILL TPW       40.41N  75.28W
04/16/2011                   BUCKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STONE EDGE ROAD... CREEK FLOODING THE ROAD

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CECILTON                39.40N  75.87W
04/16/2011                   CECIL              MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN FROM NORTHEAST TO WEST OF CECILTON

1008 PM     HAIL             WOODBINE                39.23N  74.81W
04/16/2011  M0.25 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1050 PM     FLOOD            NEWPORT                 39.30N  75.18W
04/16/2011                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADWAY FLOODING REPORTED.

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWER TWP               38.98N  74.90W
04/16/2011                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN IN LOWER TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100090 PHI1100092 PHI1100093 PHI1100091 PHI1100094
PHI1100095 PHI1100096 PHI1100098 PHI1100097 PHI1100099 PHI1100100

VJM