Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Areal Flood Warnings in 2011

Areal Flood Warning 70, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

September 6, 2011Bucks County, Monroe County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania; Sussex County, Warren County, New Jersey

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood warning at Sep 6, 2011, 6:10 PM EDT for Bucks County, Monroe County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania; Sussex County, Warren County, New Jersey. It was in force for 71 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 6, 2011, 6:10 PM EDT (22:10 UTC)
Expired
Sep 9, 2011, 5:15 PM EDT
In force
71 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-09-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-09-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -84 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
584 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

347 
WGUS41 KPHI 062210
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-089-095-070215-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0070.110906T2210Z-110907T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-MONROE PA-
610 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
  AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO 
  NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN STREET
  FLOODING...AS WELL AS SHARP RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4094 7464 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4079 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4066 7543 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4081 7549 4084 7549 4114 7507 4109 7503
      4111 7495 4127 7484 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

HAYES
13 follow-up statements
677 
WGUS41 KPHI 070209
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1009 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-089-095-070815-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110907T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-MONROE PA-
1009 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 1007 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED    
  RAIN...SOME OF IT HEAVY...OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST    
  CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SMALL STREAMS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND 
  WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED.


A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4094 7464 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4079 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4066 7543 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4081 7549 4084 7549 4114 7507 4109 7503
      4111 7495 4127 7484 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

JJM
651 
WGUS41 KPHI 070729
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-089-095-071415-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110907T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-MONROE PA-
329 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 327 AM EDT SMALL STREAMS IN THE AREA WERE STILL                 
  RUNNING HIGH FROM EARLIER RAIN. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER    
  LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING  
  HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1015 AM EDT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4094 7464 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4079 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4066 7543 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4081 7549 4084 7549 4114 7507 4109 7503
      4111 7495 4127 7484 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

JJM
461 
WGUS81 KPHI 071334
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAC089-071340-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110907T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE PA-
934 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SMALL STREAMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-071415-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110907T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
934 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS...NORTHAMPTON...WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES...

AT 930 AM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE WARNED AREA. IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...THE MONOCACY CREEK IN 
BETHLEHEM REMAINED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE, BUT WAS FALLING. THE WATER 
LEVEL WAS 5.02 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.5 FEET. IN ADDITION, THE 
LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON WAS RISING AND WAS APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. 
IN WARREN COUNTY...THE MUSCONETCONG RIVER, BEAVER BROOK, AND THE 
PEQUEST RIVER WERE ALL RUNNING HIGH. IN SUSSEX COUNTY, THE WATER 
LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK IN FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 6.04 FEET AND WAS 
RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 6.00 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

KRUZDLO
999 
WGUS41 KPHI 071336
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-072215-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110907T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
936 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 935 AM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE WARNED AREA. IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...THE MONOCACY CREEK IN 
BETHLEHEM REMAINED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE, BUT WAS FALLING. THE WATER 
LEVEL WAS 5.02 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.5 FEET. IN ADDITION, THE 
LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON WAS RISING AND WAS APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. 
IN WARREN COUNTY...THE MUSCONETCONG RIVER, BEAVER BROOK, AND THE 
PEQUEST RIVER WERE ALL RUNNING HIGH. IN SUSSEX COUNTY, THE WATER 
LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK IN FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 6.04 FEET AND WAS 
RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 6.00 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

KRUZDLO
227 
WGUS41 KPHI 072119
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
519 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-080615-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110908T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
519 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT THURSDAY

* AT 515 PM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
  WARNED AREA. 

* IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MONOCACY CREEK AT 
  BETHLEHEM WAS 5.4 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.5 FEET. THE WATER LEVEL
  IS SLOWLY FALLING. 

* IN WARREN COUNTY...THE BEAVER BROOK AND THE PEQUEST RIVER CONTINUE
  TO RISE.

* IN SUSSEX COUNTY...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK AT 
  FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 7.2 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. IN 
  ADDITION...THE PEQUEST RIVER AT HUNTSVILLE CONTINUES TO RISE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

HAYES
366 
WGUS41 KPHI 080612
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
212 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-081415-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110908T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
212 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 200 AM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF    
  THE WARNED AREA...AND MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY. 

* IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MONOCACY CREEK AT   
  BETHLEHEM WAS 4.6 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.5 FEET. THE WATER LEVEL   
  IS EXPECTED TO START RISING AS ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVES INTO THE      
  AREA. 

* IN WARREN COUNTY...THE BEAVER BROOK AND THE PEQUEST RIVER ARE      
  STILL RUNNING HIGH WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

* IN SUSSEX COUNTY...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK AT            
  FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 6.2 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 


A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD HAVE ALREADY TAKEN NECESSARY 
PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

JJM
333 
WGUS41 KPHI 081407
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1007 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-081715-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110908T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
1007 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1003 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH THE RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY ENDED, SMALL 
STREAMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH OR IN FLOOD. 

* IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT 
GLENDON WAS 19.5 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.

* IN WARREN COUNTY, THE MUSCONETCONG, BEAVER BROOK, THE PEQUEST 
RIVER, AND PAULINS KILL, TO NAME A FEW, WERE ALL RUNNING VERY HIGH.

* IN SUSSEX COUNTY, THE PEQUEST RIVER WAS RUNNING HIGH AND THE WATER 
LEVEL AT FLAT BROOK IN FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 6.15 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 
6.0 FEET.   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

KRUZDLO
394 
WGUS41 KPHI 081706
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-090115-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
106 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 101 PM EDT ...ALTHOUGH THE RAINS LIGHTENED UP LATE THIS 
MORNING, SMALL STREAMS CONTINUED AT THEIR HIGH LEVELS. MORE RAIN IS 
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RENEWED RISES ARE LIKELY. THE FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED. 

* IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT 
GLENDON WAS 19.4 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.

* IN WARREN COUNTY, THE MUSCONETCONG, BEAVER BROOK, THE PEQUEST 
RIVER, AND PAULINS KILL, TO NAME A FEW, WERE ALL RUNNING VERY HIGH 
OR WERE OUT OF THEIR BANKS. EVACUATIONS HAVE TAKEN PLACE BELVIDERE, 
FRANKLIN, AND BLAIRSTOWN.

* IN SUSSEX COUNTY, THE PEQUEST RIVER WAS RUNNING HIGH AND THE WATER 
LEVEL AT FLAT BROOK IN FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 6.76 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 
6.0 FEET. THE EARLIER FLOODING IN BRANCHVILLE HAS DIMINISHED. AT THE 
TIME OF FLOODING, ROADS AND BRIDGES WERE IMPASSABLE. WITH MORE RAIN 
TO COME THIS AFTERNOON, SOME RENEWED RISES ARE LIKELY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

KRUZDLO
174 
WGUS41 KPHI 090052
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
852 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NJC037-041-PAC017-095-090715-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
852 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT FRIDAY

* AT 844 PM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
  THE WARNED AREA. THE WATER LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK IN 
  FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 8.7 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 6 FEET. THE BROOK HAS 
  CRESTED...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EARLY 
  MORNING HOURS.

* THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON WAS 20.2 FEET AND 
  CONTINUED TO RISE. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED
  TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* OTHER SMALL STREAMS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THE 
  ADDITIONAL RISES COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4092 7466 4090 7470 4090 7478
      4080 7485 4059 7519 4055 7518 4048 7528
      4060 7540 4067 7544 4066 7547 4076 7560
      4082 7549 4086 7531 4096 7514 4100 7511
      4107 7497 4110 7498 4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

HAYES
156 
WGUS81 KPHI 090655
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

PAC017-090704-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BUCKS PA-
255 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SMALL STREAMS IN NORTH
CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY...

SMALL STREAMS IN THE COUNTY HAVE NOW RETURNED TO THEIR BANKS. 
HOWEVER...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE DELAWARE 
RIVER AS THE CREST MOVES DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4098 7462 4092 7466 4090 7470
      4090 7478 4080 7485 4060 7519 4062 7520
      4059 7530 4081 7548 4086 7530 4096 7514
      4100 7511 4107 7497 4110 7498 4115 7491
      4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

NJC037-041-PAC095-090715-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-
255 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EDT FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTHAMPTON...WARREN AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

* AT 245 AM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
  THE WARNED AREA. THE WATER LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK IN              
  FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 7.2 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 6 FEET. THE BROOK      
  HAS CRESTED...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE        
  MORNING HOURS.

* THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON WAS 21.4 FEET AND 
  CONTINUED TO RISE. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED 
  TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING. ALL INTERESTED 
PARTIES SHOULD HAVE ALREADY TAKEN NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. 

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4098 7462 4092 7466 4090 7470
      4090 7478 4080 7485 4060 7519 4062 7520
      4059 7530 4081 7548 4086 7530 4096 7514
      4100 7511 4107 7497 4110 7498 4115 7491
      4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

JJM
631 
WGUS41 KPHI 090659
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

NJC037-041-PAC095-091515-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 245 AM EDT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
  THE WARNED AREA. THE WATER LEVEL ON THE FLAT BROOK IN              
  FLATBROOKVILLE WAS 7.2 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 6 FEET. THE BROOK      
  HAS CRESTED...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE        
  MORNING HOURS.

* THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON WAS 21.4 FEET AND 
  CONTINUED TO RISE. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED 
  TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING. ALL INTERESTED 
PARTIES SHOULD HAVE ALREADY TAKEN NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. 


&&

LAT...LON 4117 7439 4098 7462 4092 7466 4090 7470
      4090 7478 4080 7485 4060 7519 4062 7520
      4059 7530 4081 7548 4086 7530 4096 7514
      4100 7511 4107 7497 4110 7498 4115 7491
      4134 7475 4135 7468

$$

JJM
039 
WGUS81 KPHI 091455
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1055 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

NJC037-041-091503-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
1055 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SMALL STREAMS IN WARREN
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 4086 7505 4084 7510 4083 7509 4079 7510
      4077 7513 4078 7516 4074 7520 4073 7519
      4068 7521 4067 7519 4065 7521 4062 7520
      4059 7530 4081 7548 4086 7530 4096 7514

$$

PAC095-091515-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHAMPTON PA-
1055 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM EDT FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...

AT 1053 AM EDT...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON WAS 
19.79 FEET AND WAS FALLING. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.00 FEET.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 7505 4084 7510 4083 7509 4079 7510
      4077 7513 4078 7516 4074 7520 4073 7519
      4068 7521 4067 7519 4065 7521 4062 7520
      4059 7530 4081 7548 4086 7530 4096 7514

$$

KRUZDLO
192 
WGUS41 KPHI 091457
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1057 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

PAC095-092115-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110909T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHAMPTON PA-
1057 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT FRIDAY

* AT 1056 AM EDT...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE LEHIGH RIVER AT GLENDON 
WAS 19.79 FEET AND WAS FALLING. FLOOD STAGE IS 19.00 FEET. THE 
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 7505 4084 7510 4083 7509 4079 7510
      4077 7513 4078 7516 4074 7520 4073 7519
      4068 7521 4067 7519 4065 7521 4062 7520
      4059 7530 4081 7548 4086 7530 4096 7514

$$

KRUZDLO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Sep 6, 4:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 4:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WELL OFF CAPE COD,
ACROSS THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT AND THE LOW ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MAY BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE REMNANT LOW OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM LEE
LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BASICALLY EVERYONE, BUT
ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, NORTH AND WESTWARD AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
BEING THAT PW VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE NOT EXTREME AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IN SOME AREAS; PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE MOS WAS TAKEN
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE REMNANT LOW FROM WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING WHILE IT
DOES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, BUT MAY CROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE AREA. AGAIN, PERIODS OF RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES, ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE MAY SEE A BREAK, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. ACTUALLY, IF
THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS COULD WARM QUITE
NICELY. FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS
TO BLEND IN SOME OF THE COOLER MET MOS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND RAIN, WE MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS THE MAV IS FORECASTING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM LEE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH OUR REGION REMAINING UNDER A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT
DIFFLUENT FLOW. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF OUR COUNTIES.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE KATIA SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY, IT APPEARED AS THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, IT NOW SEEMS
AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

A GRADUAL DRYING IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD OUR REGION ON TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM
THE 1200 UTC NAM AND THE 1200 UTC GFS VARIED A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DIFFERENCES WERE CLOSE TO 10
OR 12 DEGREES IN SPOTS. WE WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SETS OF FIGURES BEING THAT THE SKY COVER FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE DAYTIME PERIOD, IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO LOWER. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
VARIED FROM VFR, TO MVFR, TO IFR FROM SITE TO SITE, BUT EVERYONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, THEN SWITCH TO THE
EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE HAVE KEPT ANY TS/CB
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS; ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE/HEAVY AT TIMES AND REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY VALUES. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN FRONT. EVEN
THOUGH WINDS HAVE NOT GUSTED VERY STRONG TODAY, THEY MAY STILL
BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE OCEAN, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SWELLS. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONTINUED AFTER THAT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AT LWSD1 AND BRND1 ABOVE 25 KNOTS FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE LOWER BAY. THE BEST GRADIENT IS OVER THE DELAWARE BAY
NOW...AND MAY BACK OFF BEFORE 400 AM WEDNESDAY. THE ADVISORY WILL
BE REEVALUATED LATER THIS EVENING.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM KATIA PASSES WELL TO OUR
EAST. A RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, GUSTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL AFFECT OF HURRICANE KATIA.

WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE KATIA REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.
WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 10 FEET OR MORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS UNTIL FRIDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS KATIA MOVES FARTHER OUT OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 3:00 PM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.50 TO 4.00 INCHES HAD OCCURRED
IN A NARROW BAND FROM THE NORTHERN END OF CHESAPEAKE BAY UP ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING WESTERN SECTIONS OF HARD HIT PASSAIC
AND MORRIS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS...THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...IS FORECAST TO BRING TOTAL AMOUNTS INTO THE 3.00 TO
5.50 INCH RANGE.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...RAINFALL TOTALS OF A 0.25 TO 1.25 INCHES
HAD OCCURRED FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE UP ACROSS PHILADELPHIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FOR THESE AREAS...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...IS FORECAST TO BRING TOTAL
AMOUNTS INTO THE 1.50 TO 3.00 INCH RANGE.

WITH SATURATED SOIL FROM EXCESSIVE PREVIOUS RAINS...AND ALREADY HIGH
STREAM LEVELS...RUNOFF WILL BE FORCED TO FIND ABOVE GROUND AVENUES.

ADDITIONAL KPHI FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...UPDATED AT LEAST EVERY SIX
HOURS...CAN BE FOUND ON AHPS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR IN EFFECT, BUT WE ARE
APPROACHING HIGH AS THE WAVES/SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE OVERNIGHT TO HIGH DEPENDING ON FURTHER GUIDANCE.
WITH THE BUILDING SWELLS, WE MAY ALSO NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT
SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WE HAVE HELD OFF FOR
NOW AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ON 8 FOOT BREAKERS IN OUR SURF ZONE IN
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
KATIA WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
     013-015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...ROBERTSON
MARINE...ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO/KRUD
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 4:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-
067>071-072030-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ020>023-027-072030-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-072030-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-072030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-072030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-072030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 6, 5:44 PM EDT, 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

DEZ002>004-MDZ019-020-062345-
CAROLINE MD-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-TALBOT MD-
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...KENT...SUSSEX AND
TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
EASTON TO 15 MILES WEST OF SALISBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SMITHVILLE...AGNER AROUND 600 PM...
ANDREWSVILLE...SEAFORD AROUND 615 PM...SYCAMORE...GUMBORO AROUND 630
PM...DOVER...WYOMING AROUND 645 PM...BIG STONE BEACH AND SLAUGHTER
BEACH AROUND 700 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3846 7570 3865 7572 3869 7583 3867 7595
      3865 7596 3865 7597 3884 7598 3925 7540
      3907 7539 3898 7529 3893 7530 3879 7514
      3868 7508 3868 7512 3865 7511 3865 7506
      3860 7504 3844 7505

SZATKOWSKI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 5, 8:19 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton116 min
Sep 5, 9:32 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIMontgomery9 hr
Sep 5, 10:18 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHILehigh, Northampton4 hr
Sep 5, 10:53 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIChester, Montgomery3 hr
Sep 5, 11:04 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBucks6 hr
Sep 5, 11:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks4 hr
Sep 6, 12:22 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIDelaware, Philadelphia3 hr
Sep 6, 1:42 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIChester, Montgomery3 hr
Sep 6, 2:09 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHILehigh, Northampton3 hr
Sep 6, 3:40 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBerks3 hr
Sep 6, 5:43 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia3 hr
Sep 6, 5:49 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIPhiladelphia20 hr
Sep 6, 6:32 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIMontgomery26 hr
Sep 6, 6:38 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIMontgomery, Philadelphia23 hr
Sep 6, 6:44 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIChester, Delaware15 hr
Sep 6, 6:48 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBucks31 hr
Sep 6, 7:03 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIChester16 hr
Sep 6, 7:41 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIDelaware5 hr
Sep 6, 7:52 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIBucks52 hr
Sep 5, 9:43 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMorris, Sussex, Warren4 hr
Sep 6, 1:32 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIMorris, Sussex, Warren5 hr
Sep 6, 6:57 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIMorris22 hr
Sep 6, 4:35 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIEssex, Passaic7 days
Sep 6, 4:35 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIMorris, Passaic4 days
Sep 6, 4:35 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIMorris5 days
Sep 6, 4:35 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningPHIPassaic4 days
Sep 6, 5:45 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIHunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset3 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2011Areal Flood Warnings in New Jersey, 2011Every areal flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.