River Flood Warning 7, NWS Spokane, WA

802 
WGUS86 KOTX 060248
FLSOTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE, WA
748 PM PDT TUE APR 5 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
IDAHO...WASHINGTON...

  PALOUSE RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING LATAH AND WHITMAN COUNTIES

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN IDAHO...

  ST JOE RIVER AT ST MARIES AFFECTING BENEWAH COUNTY

RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE PALOUSE RIVER AT
POTLATCH AND THE RIVER IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET OVERNIGHT.  AT 745 PM PST
THE LEVEL WAS AT 14.8 FEET.  THE ST JOE RIVER AT ST MARIES HOWEVER
WILL STAY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT.  LOCAL FLOODING OF SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS IS STILL ANTICIPATED INTO WEDNESDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE. AS LITTLE
AS ONE FOOT OF WATER ON THE ROAD CAN MOVE MOST VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OTX

&&

IDC009-061448-
/O.EXT.KOTX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110407T1423Z/
/SJMI1.1.RS.110402T0837Z.110403T2100Z.110407T0223Z.NO/
748 PM PDT TUE APR 5 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE ST JOE RIVER AT ST MARIES
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING
* AT  7:11 PM TUE THE STAGE WAS...32.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.5 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.7 FEET BY TONIGHT. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 32.5 FEET...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THE 
  ST JOE VALLEY.

$$

IDC057-WAC075-060318-
/O.CAN.KOTX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110406T1358Z/
/PLOI1.1.ER.110405T1730Z.110405T2100Z.110406T0109Z.NO/
748 PM PDT TUE APR 5 2011

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  PALOUSE RIVER NEAR, POTLATCH.
* AT  7:16 PM TUE THE STAGE WAS...14.8 FEET. 
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* AT 15.0 FEET...EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF THE LOW LYING AREAS BETWEEN 
  POTLATCH, ID AND PALOUSE, WA WILL OCCUR. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE 
  EXPERIENCED AT THE LIONS CLUB COMMUNITY PARK AND HAYTON GREENE PARK
  IN PALOUSE. SOUTH RIVER ROAD WILL LIKELY BE FLOODED WHERE IT 
  CROSSES THE PALOUSE RIVER AT WELLESLEY RD. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
445 AM PDT TUE APR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RAINFALL FROM
OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL COME INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SHOWERS
REMAIN A RISK THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER GOING INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN THE BIG AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FILL AS IT
MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER...WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT...WITH RAPID
DRYING AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MY
FORECAST A LITTLE BEFORE 12Z. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WILL RESULT IN A SHORT LIVED DRYING
TREND FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND SUN BREAKS TODAY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY
WHICH WILL MAKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DEEP BASIN JUST
ABOUT ANY AREA WILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW PELLETS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MAINLY SNOW ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND WE WILL KEEP THIS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT LEAST.

WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ALMOST
AN INCH OVER THE LAST 12-15 HOURS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
SOLIDLY IN THE .50-.75 RANGE. THIS WILL ONLY ADD TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS AND FAST MOVING SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
HYDROLOGIC HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE AND RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AN AREA OF CONCERN IS PARADISE CREEK
NEAR THE UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO WHICH ROSE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING NEAR MOSCOW.

IN ADDITION THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN PDX-GPI WILL BE 10-12 MB.
85-7H WINDS OF 30-40KTS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
BEFORE THE NEXT FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
AND WE WILL LOSE THE DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP. HOWEVER MODEL PW'S
ARE .30 TO .40 WHICH IS 80-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WARM FRONT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z THEN SPREAD
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST-WEST
FLOW WILL AGAIN SHADOW OUT THE THE BASIN AND LOWER EAST SLOPES WITH
THE FOCUS FOR THE CASCADE CREST....THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER THEN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX
BELOW. BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW DOWN TO 2000 FEET WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /TOBIN

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT WITH A DECENT TAP INTO PACIFIC
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH STRONG CUSP DYNAMICS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT AND THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL SHOWERS. IF DEFORMATION BANDS DEVELOP
AROUND THE 850MB LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LOCAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS.
MODEL QPF REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY BUT ANY PERSISTENT
SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.

THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS THE
LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH IT.
THIS TRACK WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS IT SLIDES OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW SINKS TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS BUT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
RETREATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE
RESPITE WILL BE TEMPORARY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING WARM FRONTAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW POPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO
CLIMO WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.
/KELCH

&&

.AVIATION...
AS OF 12Z THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING MY SOUTHEAST ZONES. SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE CLEARED RAPIDLY. HOWEVER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. THE ATMOPSHERE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DESTABILIZE AND EXPECT ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TO DEVELOP AROUND 17-20Z AND
LINGER THROUGH 03Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN GRAUPEL AND OR
SNOW. -SHRA MAINLY FOR THE EASRERN ZONES...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE NEAR KMWH AS WELL. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFT 06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES NEAR 12Z. /TOBIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        46  33  43  28  45  29 /  40  60  60  40  50  20
COEUR D'ALENE  44  31  40  27  44  27 /  60  70  60  50  50  30
PULLMAN        45  32  42  29  43  29 /  60  60  70  60  50  40
LEWISTON       50  36  48  32  48  31 /  40  50  70  60  50  30
COLVILLE       48  33  46  29  49  29 /  50  70  70  30  40  20
SANDPOINT      42  31  39  28  42  28 /  60  80  70  40  60  30
KELLOGG        39  29  36  26  39  25 /  80  80  70  60  60  40
MOSES LAKE     54  35  51  28  53  30 /  10  20  40  30  20  10
WENATCHEE      51  33  48  30  50  33 /  10  30  30  30  20  10
OMAK           54  33  50  29  53  30 /  20  40  40  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.

WA...NONE.
&&