Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Nashville, TN

442 
WWUS54 KOHX 231858
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

TNC049-137-231908-
/O.EXP.KOHX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110323T1900Z/
FENTRESS TN-PICKETT TN-
158 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PICKETT AND NORTHEASTERN
FENTRESS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3638 8468 3636 8485 3654 8488 3656 8474
      3650 8470 3644 8469 3640 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 263DEG 69KT 3648 8443

$$

ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

.AVIATION...BNA/CSV...CDFNT APPROACHING MID TN FROM THE NW. LOOK
FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AM EXPECTING TEMPO TS
MID TO LATE AFTN WITH LOW VSBY AND CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND
SHIFT EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE FROPA, W/ LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE OCCLUDED FNT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011/

UPDATE...
PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE SO THE
ONLY CHANGE...WHICH WILL BE ISSUED SOON...WILL BE TO STREAMLINE THE
MORNING WORDING.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING OVER NORTH PART OF
MIDDLE TN. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK TO OUR
WEST... AND EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW NEAR INDY SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR ST LOUIS...FORT SMITH...AND DALLAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON... AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT.  FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR BY 00Z IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES... AND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

MOST OF MIDDLE TN IS IN SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA THS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MAX INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. INDIVIDUAL
STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH BASED ON MORNING
BALLOON DATA AND FORECAST WIND PROFILE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE WX
IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SSW
WINDS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THE EVENING. BASED ON
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS...WILL INCLUDE LLWS REMARK THIS MORNING FOR
40KT 2KFT WINDS. MAINLY VFR TODAY...BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH TSRA. A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SCT TSRA OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING. THE FROPA WILL REACH BNA AROUND 00Z...AND
CSV ABOUT 03Z...WITH NW WINDS AND VFR FOLLOWING.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

MAIN FORECAST QUANDARIES...POTENTIAL SVR WX IMPACTS ACROSS MID
TN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TODAY...STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH RATHER WARM TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BIG CHANGES IN
STORE FOR TODAY...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE N OHIO VALLEY REGION...MOVES TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MID STATE
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS PLACED LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND E OF I-24 AND LOCATIONS N OF A WOODBURY TO SPENCER LINE
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR TODAY...WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

BELIEVE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS W AND S...BUT
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK AREA...LIKELY TSTMS...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. BEST DYNAMICS FOR THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BE NE OF THE MID STATE...NE KY...WV...AND W OHIO...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME SORT OF A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BEST SVR WX POTENTIAL IN THE NASHVILLE
METRO AREA BETWEEN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL GO WITH A TRANSITION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS THRU THE MID
MORNING HOURS...TO A CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...
AS INSTABILITY BECOMES BEST ENHANCED ACROSS THE W HALF OF MID TN
BY AROUND NOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SKY BECOMING CLDY...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THRU THE AREA.

AS FOR TONIGHT...BELIEVE THAT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS...LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS
PLATEAU...WILL BE ONGOING THRU THE EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-65. MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED...BEFORE THIS EVENT
MOVES E OF THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTING AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE MID STATE.

AS FOR THU...HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
AND EVEN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL
GO WITH A RANGE FROM LOW 50S NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER TO AROUND 60
NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY AROUND 50
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF THE MID STATE.

AS FOR THU NIGHT...LOOK FOR CONTINUED RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS
THE MID STATE...DRY CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 30S...AROUND 30 PLATEAU.

AS FOR FRI...SLY SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE MID STATE...AS
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE S PLAINS...
AND USHERS A WARM FRONT CLOSE TO THE TN/AL BORDER BY SAT MORNING.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DISSIPATES...ALLOWING FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
MID STATE ALSO. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHWRS...ACROSS
NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATE
A REBOUND TO SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 50S N
TO MID 60S S.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUING TO
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AS STATED IN YESTERDAY'S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...SUNDAY STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE THE BEST DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR RAINFALL...WHILE
THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT YET ANOTHER WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS
TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MON AND INTO TUE.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-240000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 24...AND ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MURFREESBORO TO SPENCER LINE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ARE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WITH A DIAMETER SIZE OF ONE INCH OR GREATER.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
STATE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31