Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Anoka County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

165 
WWUS43 KMPX 182041
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
341 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011

...A LATE WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
THE ADVISORY HAS REPLACED THE WINTER STORM THAT HAD BEEN AFFECT
EARLIER. THE ADVISORY AFFECTS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
RUSH CITY TO THE TWIN CITIES...TO HUTCHINSON...TO NEAR REDWOOD
FALLS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 
4 TO 6INCHES ARE LIKELY FROM NEAR WASECA AND ALBERT LEA...TO RED
WING...DURAND...AND EAU CLAIRE. ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE EAU CLAIRE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES...RICE LAKE...LADYSMITH...MANKATO...FAIRMONT..AND OWATONNA.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SLEET...DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER KANSAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM... SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MNZ053-060>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
190445-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0005.110420T0000Z-110420T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0037.110420T0000Z-110420T1700Z/
CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-
BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-
RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...
ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...
SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...
FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...
FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...
RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...
PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
341 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON
CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
TUESDAY TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW
  WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW OR SLUSH ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES WHICH
  WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT
  ARE NOT PLOWED OR TREATED. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
  EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE SNOW COULD BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET
  TUESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS OF GFS
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN DEPICT SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH...TRACK AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW INDICATED IN THE
OTHER MODEL SOURCES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. FOLLOWED THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS BASE ON GFS SOLUTION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IT IS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN SIX
INCHES...STARTING TUESDAY.

MODEL OUTPUT OFF THE 600-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA SHOWED GOOD
CORRELATION IN DETERMINE A FIRST LEAD IN WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL SETUP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  RIGHT NOW...IT CENTER THE FOCUS
RIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.  THICKNESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WILL DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE AT THE ONSET. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...850 MB
TEMP ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN -4 DEGREES
CELSIUS. AGAIN THE GROUND TEMPERATURES...WILL MUCH SNOW CAN RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATE. IF ANY INDICATION...FROM THE RECENT SNOW EVENT COUPLE OF
NIGHT AGO...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND TEMPS IN COLUMN BETWEEN -10 AND
-12 DEG CELSIUS...SOME LOCATIONS COULD EASILY RECEIVE UP TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.  THICKNESS VALUES STILL COLD TO GET EITHER A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR PERIOD OF SNOW.

IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN MN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRONOUNCED BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS...WILL CONTINUE TO SEEDED
CLOUD LAYER DOWN INTO THE MID AND LOW LEVELS.  LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WRUNG OUT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MN...UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER TONIGHT
WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN FAR WESTERN AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WITH
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS.

KMSP...QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF. GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
     NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
     WATONWAN.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

JM/CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
111 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOME RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES REMAIN IN FLOOD. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS ANOTHER POTENT SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM KANSAS INTO MICHIGAN. QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN AS TO WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DURING THE BULK
OF THE EVENT...BUT THE THREAT EXISTS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TO SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SOME RIVERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.