Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
157 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CENTERED OVER IOWA EARLIER TDA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDING NORTH OVER MN AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MAINLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A
COLD POOL MOVING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BY
EVENING MUCH OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LIFTED WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THUS...A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT A SMALL POPS GOING OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. BACK OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE REST OF THE PERIODS...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEPICTED IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL DAMPEN ACROSS MN AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAF ISSUED AT 00Z...AS BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN MN FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING TO THE
EAST. ALSO EXPECT THE HIGH CIRRUS CANOPY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO BE
UNDERCUT BY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL THIS MORNING. CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST OF LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN BEGINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

KMSP...CONTINUED THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND THE AIRPORT SHOULD AT LEAST HAVE RAIN IN THE AREA FOR
THE MORNING RUSH. WINDS SHOULD KEEP THEIR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS...GRADUALLY INCREASING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THE SAME CEILINGS IMPROVE
AND ANY REMAINING RAIN SLIDES EAST...BETWEEN 15-18Z.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
280830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
323 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEVERAL RIVERS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL RIVERS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA. SEE
THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ041-271015-
DOUGLAS-
450 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY
THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

AT 448 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ERDAHL. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  EVANSVILLE.
  MELBY.
  MILLERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9557 4611 9533 4610 9533 4594 9577
      4609 9578 4611 9575 4612 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 235DEG 34KT 4603 9584

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ042-271115-
TODD-
549 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN TODD COUNTY THROUGH 615 AM
CDT...

AT 544 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF BERTHA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HEWITT.
  STAPLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4637 9472 4615 9515 4616 9516 4636 9517
      4637 9516 4638 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 232DEG 31KT 4627 9515

JLT