Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Twin Cities, MN

062 
WWUS53 KMPX 101022
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

MNC019-037-139-143-101036-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-110710T1030Z/
CARVER MN-DAKOTA MN-SCOTT MN-SIBLEY MN-
522 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SIBLEY...SCOTT...
WESTERN DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CARVER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 AM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL LIKELY WITH WITH 
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4473 9399 4481 9341 4478 9338 4479 9337
      4479 9331 4483 9322 4484 9317 4454 9310
      4454 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 263DEG 31KT 4470 9313

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY INTO
EASTERN CWA HAS PREVENTED A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR ALONG
WEAK SURFACE TROF FM WC MN INTO SE SODAK. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT LAST COUPLE HOURS IN SE SODAK WITH
SBCAPE VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY AROUND 2000 J/KG. THUS STILL
KEEPING A CHC POP MAINLY ACRS S CWA OVERNIGHT WITH POPS TAPERING OFF
TO THE NW. COULD STILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN/EVE. S CWA ALSO HAS A CHANCE OF SOME SHWRS/TSTMS FIRING OFF IN
MOIST PLUME  FROM SW U.S. ACRS NEB INTO S MN/IA. PWATS QUIET HEFTY
IN S MN IN 1.75 RANGE.  GFS HAS ALSO BEEN CARRYING A WEAK SHORTWV
ACROSS IA LATE TNGHT/SUN MRNG.

FOR SUNDAY TRIMMED BACK POPS IN WC WI AND EC MN LEAVING A SWATH OF
20-30% ACROSS SC AND WC MN.  THE SC AREA TO CATCH ANY REMNANTS OF
WHAT MIGHT BE LEFT IN THE MORNING AND WHERE INSTABILITY AGAIN RISES
TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG IN THE AFTN...BUT LITTLE FORCING EVIDENT.  SHUD
ALSO DEVELOP AN AREA OF TSTMS IN E DKTS IN THE AFTN WHICH MAY PUSH
INTO WC MN. EXPECT MORE SUN TMRW THAN TODAY...SO TEMPS SHUD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN ACRS NE MN LATE MONDAY/TUES AND
INTO WI TUES/TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING IN SOME DRIER AND BIT
COOLER AIR AS WINDS TURN MORE ENE. IT WILL ALSO OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY
TO HAVE A COUPLE OF MAINLY DRY PERIODS IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE A VERY
WET SOUNDING FORECAST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WARM AND MOIST
AIR BEGINS A RETURN TO AREA MAINLY WED/THURSDAY. PRETTY MUCH LEFT
GOING POPS INTACT FOR THIS PERIOD IN 30-40% RANGE...BUT GFS/ECMWF
ARE FAVORING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK HOT RIDGE BUILDS NORTH WITH GFS BRINGING 500 MB
HEIGHTS ABOVE 590 DM ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENUF OF A CAP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT LEAST IN S
PTNS OF AREA WHERE I WENT DRY IN LATER PERIODS OF FORECAST.  THIS
COULD ALSO BRING SOME MID 90 DEGREE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHWEST MN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG
INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS WITH TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG CELSIUS.
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WAS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
MOVING EAST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS RELATIVELY WEAK OR NOT
EXISTENCE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WASHOUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND CONFIDENT
OF PUTTING CB OR SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAF IS TOO LOW.  EXPECT SOME
PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL TAF SITES
KEAU..KRNH AND KMSP.  REST OF FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SKC
OR SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL.  SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING UNDER
6 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

KMSP...SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...VSBYS 5-6 MILES IN
FOG. HAD REMOVED TSRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH AIRMASS WELL CAPPED.
ISOLD SHRA/TRSA MAY SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTH INCREASING
TO 10-20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENLY SKC OR SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
OR ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

BAP/JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
101100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

MNZ074-082-091-100915-
BROWN-MARTIN-WATONWAN-
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO BROWN...MARTIN AND WATONWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

AT 312 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JEFFERS TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINDOM TO WORTHINGTON. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  COMFREY.
  DARFUR.
  ORMSBY.
  SHERBURN.
  ST JAMES.
  SOUTH BRANCH.
  BUTTERFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4410 9487 4410 9510 4414 9511 4414 9510
      4408 9460 4373 9448 4355 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 279DEG 30KT 4408 9525 4381 9515
          4361 9559

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

MNZ067>069-076-077-100945-
CARVER-LE SUEUR-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
406 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CARVER...LE SUEUR...RICE...SCOTT AND
SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

AT 359 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARLINGTON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. A QUICK 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ARLINGTON.
  GREEN ISLE.
  HENDERSON.
  BELLE PLAINE.
  JORDAN.
  ST BENEDICT.

LAT...LON 4480 9364 4454 9345 4449 9416 4467 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 259DEG 30KT 4460 9405