Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Mobile, AL

293 
WWUS54 KMOB 082025
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ALC053-FLC113-082100-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-110808T2100Z/
ESCAMBIA AL-SANTA ROSA FL-
325 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA AND CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KEEGO...OR NEAR EAST
BREWTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
BREWTON...RIVERVIEW...DIXONVILLE...AND ROBERTS.

LAT...LON 3097 8679 3093 8714 3094 8716 3099 8717
      3100 8716 3100 8717 3111 8721 3112 8720
      3119 8681 3100 8678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 259DEG 11KT 3105 8709

$$

594 
WWUS54 KMOB 082046
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ALC053-FLC113-082056-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-110808T2100Z/
ESCAMBIA AL-SANTA ROSA FL-
346 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA AND
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. 

LAT...LON 3097 8679 3093 8714 3094 8716 3099 8717
      3100 8716 3100 8717 3111 8721 3112 8720
      3119 8681 3100 8678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 259DEG 11KT 3106 8702

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
501 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 104 TO 108. LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. 13/JC

THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK: MODERATE

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MID/UPPER TROFING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS RETREATING SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST.
MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN...WITH NAM
SHOWING THE STRONGEST TROFING...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE WEAKEST TROF. MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT WITH THE TROF...WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXS DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT (MAINLY A
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY) TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY...WITH GFS DROPPING THE FRONT NEARLY ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO
THE COAST (DUE TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER UPPER TROFING) AND THE ECMWF
HANGING THE FRONT UP A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE COMBINATIONS OF THE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST...AND LINGERING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL ALL ACT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE EXPECTED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW/MID 90S. LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES OF 104 TO
108 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 09.01Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL
AID MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN GOOD DISPERSIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  78 /  50  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   94  80  93  81 /  50  30  50  20
DESTIN      92  81  91  81 /  40  30  50  20
EVERGREEN   95  76  95  75 /  30  20  50  20
WAYNESBORO  95  76  96  75 /  30  20  30  20
CAMDEN      95  77  97  74 /  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   95  76  94  76 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-091200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO 104 TO 107 IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO 104 TO 107 IN MANY LOCATIONS
EACH AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
250 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ALZ059-060-FLZ001>006-082100-
COVINGTON AL-ESCAMBIA AL-INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-
INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-
SANTA ROSA FL-
250 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COVINGTON AND
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OKALOOSA...SANTA ROSA AND
NORTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...GENERALLY FROM ATMORE ALABAMA TO
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES
UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
BEFORE THESE STORMS APPROACH.

THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND A WARNING MAY SOON BE
NEEDED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR FURTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&