Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Melbourne, FL

724 
WWUS52 KMLB 281036
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
636 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLC097-281046-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110328T1100Z/
OSCEOLA-
636 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 2786 8044 2787 8048 2800 8054 2799 8055
      2789 8050 2785 8049 2782 8087 2783 8087
      2805 8087 2814 8063 2800 8055 2801 8054
      2814 8061 2816 8059 2816 8058 2806 8055
      2787 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 257DEG 61KT 2797 8071

$$

FLC009-281100-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110328T1100Z/
BREVARD-
636 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 634 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PALM BAY...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST 
MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...VALKARIA...BAREFOOT 
BAY... MICCO... GRANT... INDIALANTIC...MELBOURNE BEACH AND FLORIDANA 
BEACH.

LAT...LON 2786 8044 2787 8048 2800 8054 2799 8055
      2789 8050 2785 8049 2782 8087 2783 8087
      2805 8087 2814 8063 2800 8055 2801 8054
      2814 8061 2816 8059 2816 8058 2806 8055
      2787 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 257DEG 61KT 2797 8071

$$

806 
WWUS52 KMLB 281057
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
657 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLC009-281108-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110328T1100Z/
BREVARD-
657 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 AM EDT...

THE SEVERE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND EXITED
THE WARNING AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 2786 8044 2787 8048 2800 8054 2799 8055
      2789 8050 2785 8049 2782 8087 2783 8087
      2805 8087 2814 8063 2800 8055 2801 8054
      2814 8061 2816 8059 2816 8058 2806 8055
      2787 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 257DEG 61KT 2805 8030

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS TODAY WITH THREAT FOR CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...

CURRENT-TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX IS MOVING
ONSHORE THE WESTERN PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS VIEWED ON
INFRARED/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STREAMING ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PENINSULA AHEAD OF CONVECTION. LIGHT EARLY MORNING WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
GUSTS. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. SUSPECT THAT WE WILL
SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH BEST
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...IF AT ALL.

THE GFS IS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA SO WILL GO WITH 80 PERCENT SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POP CHANCES NORTHWARD DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AIDING FUTURE CONVECTION WILL BE SUBTLE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT FROM RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET OVER NORTH FLORIDA. COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -13C WILL ALSO PROVIDE A DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. AT PRESENT AM NOT ANTICIPATING AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BEING A BIT TOO STRONG AND DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER. MAIN THREATS FROM CONVECTION SHOULD BE GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN A FEW
STORMS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A BIT TRICKY. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S FOR MAXES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROGRESS AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LIKELY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP CHANCE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AFTER THE SUN SETS AS
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN. LOWS MILD AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
60S. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY.

TUESDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ROUGHLY FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA SOUTHWARD. GFS INDICATING HIGH PW
FOR MARCH OF AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING AND INTO EARLY EVENING.

WED-SUN...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THU WITH CHANCE FOR STORMS EACH AFTN. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH CLEANLY THROUGH CENT FL LATE IN THE
WEEK. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF WHICH IS A
LITTLE FASTER WITH FROPA...THU NIGHT...AND GFS WHICH IS A LITTLE
SLOWER...FRI. BOTH MODELS SHOW GOOD FORCING AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
WITH THIS NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAIN BUT ALSO A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MVFR SHOWERS/SCT STORMS ISOLD-SCT IFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY IN CONVECTION. GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING BIGGEST AVIATION THREATS. SW-W WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 KTS DURING DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
DECREASE IN THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION BECOMING LESS IN
COVERAGE...THOUGH STILL A SMALL THREAT THRU LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CONTINUED E LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH SEAS 2-3 FT
NEAR SHORE...3-4 FT OFFSHORE. MAINLY S-SW WINDS 7-12 KTS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL. OFFSHORE STEERING
FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/SCT LIGHTNING STORMS OFF THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE W ATLC DURING THE
DAY. SEAS MAY BE HIGHER SURROUNDING STRONGER CONVECTION. CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
CELLS. WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SW-W IN THE EVENING AND NW-N LATE
OVERNIGHT REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

TUE-FRI...SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT NEARSHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE AS
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN GENERAL AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TREND
IS FOR SEAS TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD END OF WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW AND
FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
SHOULD MITIGATE LOW RHS CONCERNS BUT WILL ALSO POSE A FIRE WEATHER
RISK DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TUE-THU...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
SHOULD MITIGATE LOW RHS CONCERNS BUT WILL ALSO POSE A FIRE WEATHER
RISK DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  66  77  66 /  80  40  40  10
MCO  84  67  83  67 /  80  40  50  10
MLB  83  67  81  67 /  80  40  50  10
VRB  83  65  83  64 /  70  50  50  10
LEE  84  66  81  66 /  80  40  50  10
SFB  83  67  80  67 /  80  40  50  10
ORL  83  68  81  67 /  80  40  50  10
FPR  86  63  84  64 /  70  50  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
447 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-282200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
447 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
BEACH PATROLS AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREAS TODAY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

INLAND LAKES ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM THE EFFECTS OF STRONG STORMS AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER LAKES WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CONCERNS. HOWEVER...A FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
559 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ047-053-054-281100-
INDIAN RIVER-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
559 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...NORTHERN INDIAN
RIVER COUNTY...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 AM EDT.

AT 555 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER LAKE MARIAN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE PALM BAY...MALABAR...MELBOURNE BEACH...WEST MELBOURNE AND
SEBASTIAN.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2777 8042 2781 8045 2786 8046 2794 8052
      2786 8049 2779 8044 2777 8044 2777 8114
      2794 8125 2818 8059 2806 8055 2801 8051
      2778 8040 2777 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 249DEG 36KT 2789 8107

KELLY