River Flood Warning 4, NWS Melbourne, FL

871 
WGUS82 KMLB 111258
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
858 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL.

SHINGLE CREEK CONTINUES IN FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST WEEKEND. THE CREEK IS CRESTING TODAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A SLOW FALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

HOWEVER...IF ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER THE BASIN
TODAY...THE RIVER LEVELS COULD RISE FURTHER BEFORE FALLING.

FOR THE SHINGLE CREEK, INCLUDING CAMPBELL, MINOR FLOODING IS 
FORECAST.

FLC097-121258-
/O.EXT.KMLB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-111012T1500Z/
/SHIF1.1.ER.111009T2000Z.111013T1300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 59.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 59.0 FEET. 


&&
               FLOOD  OBSERVED          FORECAST 8AM EDT
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE  DAY  TIME    WED       THU
  CAMPBELL      59.0  59.3   TUE 08 AM    59.2      58.9

$$

498 
WGUS82 KMLB 120844
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
444 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

RIVER LEVELS ON SHINGLE CREEK HAVE SLOWLY RISEN PAST 24 HOURS.
BACKWATER OR WATER RELEASES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL 
SLIGHT RISES IN THE STAGE TODAY...OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DECLINE 
IN LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.  


FLC097-130844-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SHIF1.1.ER.111009T2000Z.111013T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
444 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 59.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 59.0 FEET. 
* AT 59.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS IN THE CAMPBELL AREA
  INCLUDING GOOD SAMARITAN VILLAGE AND THE SHERWOOD FOREST AREA.

&&
               FLOOD  OBSERVED          FORECAST 7AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE  DAY  TIME    THU       FRI
  CAMPBELL      59.0  59.5   WED  4 AM    59.4      59.2

$$

GLITTO

195 
WGUS82 KMLB 130832
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
432 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

RIVER LEVELS ON SHINGLE CREEK HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECLINE 
SINCE CRESTING ON WEDNESDAY. A SLOW CONTINUED DECREASE IN 
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
BY THE WEEKEND.

FLC097-140832-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SHIF1.1.ER.111009T2000Z.111012T1430Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
432 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL.

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 59.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 59.0 FEET. 

&&
               FLOOD  OBSERVED          FORECAST 7AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE  DAY  TIME    FRI       SAT
  CAMPBELL      59.0  59.3   THU  4 AM    59.1      58.9

$$

GLITTO

933 
WGUS82 KMLB 140702
FLSMLB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL 
302 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

RIVER LEVELS FOR SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL HAVE CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY RECEDE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAVE FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A CONTINUED SLOW DECREASE IN LEVELS 
IS FORECAST...WITH RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 
ACTION STAGE THIS WEEKEND.

FLC097-140732-
/O.CAN.KMLB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-111014T0730Z/
/SHIF1.1.ER.111009T2000Z.111012T1430Z.111014T0100Z.NO/
302 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL.

* AT  2 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 58.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 59.0 FEET. 

&&
               FLOOD  OBSERVED          FORECAST 7AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE  DAY  TIME    SAT       SUN
  CAMPBELL      59.0  58.9   FRI  2 AM    58.5      58.0

$$

GLITTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...A DEEP HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE NE CONUS WILL DRIFT
INTO THE ATLC TODAY...ALLOWING A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NE
GOMEX/FL PANHANDLE TO LIFT INTO THE DEEP S AND MERGE WITH A SHORT
WAVE FRONTAL TROF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS N...
S/SWRLY FLOW AROUND ITS BASE WILL PULL A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS INTO THE CWA. MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC LIFT ACRS THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL...LEAVING ONLY LCL POCKETS OF H85-H30
VORTICITY AND H30-H20 DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT PRECIP. LAPSE RATES
THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL BE LARGELY AOB 6C/KM...FURTHER HAMPERING
TSRA POTENTIAL.

A MOISTURE BAND TRAILING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM ACRS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRAS THIS
AFTN FROM N BREVARD/NW OSCEOLA COUNTY NWD...WHILE DRIER AIR PUSHING
UP FROM THE FL STRAITS WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE ISOLD
CATEGORY FROM S BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTY SWD. THE WEAKENING PGRAD
SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM...THOUGH THE S/SWRLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL KEEP IT PINNED NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
DIURNAL SHRAS/TSRAS TO PACK ALNG THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HRS...
ALL OF WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

S/SWRLY FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS ABV CLIMO AVG WITH AFTN
READINGS IN THE M/U80S...PREDAWN READINGS IN THE L/M70S.

WED-SAT...TRANSITIONING INTO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW COOL FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
REDUCED TO ISOLATED ON WED THEN DIP BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES FOR
THURS AND FRI. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WED-THURS DUE TO
SOME JETSTREAM CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
MID/UPPER 80S BUT DECLINING A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WED TO FRI.
MINS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THROUGH FRI THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER
BY THE WEEKEND AS SECONDARY TROF USHERS IN LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUN-MON...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESURE BUILDING
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH STARTING
TO MIGRATE BACK NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT SOMEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN/BAY OF
CAMPECHE REGION. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND MOISTURE LEVELS
BEGIN TO RISE AS LOCAL WINDS VEER MORE E-ESE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW COASTAL POPS INTO FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 11/14Z...AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS DVLPG OVER THE
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COAST N OF KXMR. BTWN 11/14Z-11/16Z...CIGS
LFTG TO AOA FL040 AND DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 11/16Z-11/24Z...SCT MVFR
SHRAS AND ISOLD IFR TSRAS N OF KISM-KXMR...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR
TSRAS S OF KISM-KXMR. BTWN 12/00Z-12/04Z...SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS
ALNG THE COAST BTWN KOMN-KVRB...ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS S OF KVRB...SLGT
CHC SHRAS INTERIOR SITES. AFT 12/04Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SRLY WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC HAVE BEEN BLO
15KTS FOR ALMOST 24HRS NOW...ALLOWING AMPLE TIME FOR WIND WAVES TO
DIMINISH BLO 2FT. SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE DATA BUOYS REMAIN ELEVATED
DUE TO A 7-8FT LONG PD SWELL THAT EXTENDS BEYOND BUOY010. NEARSHORE
BUOYS MEASURING SEAS BTWN 4-6FT SUGGEST THE SWELL IS SLOWLY ERODING
WITH DOMINANT PDS AOA 10SEC. WILL ALLOW THE SCA OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TO EXPIRE BUT WILL CONTINUE A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE
TIME BEING UNTIL SEAS DECREASE BLO 6FT. GIVEN THE HEIGHT OF THE
SWELL AND HOW FAR INTO THE ATLC IT EXTENDS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA
FOR THE OFFSHORE LEG THRU 02Z TONIGHT.

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH W-NW WINDS AOB 10-15 KNOTS...SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO
1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. WINDS
BECOMING NE 10-15KT ON SAT THEN EASTERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASING LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SHINGLE CREEK NEAR
CAMPBELL FOR MINOR FLOODING. ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BASIN
TODAY COULD AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION...OTHERWISE A SLOW FALL EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK. RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST JOHNS
RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY NEAR GENEVA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM
OVER THE BASIN LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  10
MCO  88  70  88  69 /  30  20  20  10
MLB  85  72  86  70 /  20  30  20  10
VRB  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  20  10
LEE  88  71  88  69 /  30  20  20  10
SFB  88  71  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  30  20  20  10
FPR  86  72  87  71 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....GLITTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
448 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-111600-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
448 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. WHILE THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT WILL BE
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...RECENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST TWO DAYS HAS SATURATED THE GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN TREES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH WEAK OR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEMS.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS SATURATED THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE LOW TODAY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING
FLOODING AND STANDING WATER CONDITIONS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LARGE EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA
BEACHES. IN ADDITION...THE RECENT HIGH SURF EVENT HAS CUT NUMEROUS
CHANNELS IN THE SANDBARS JUST OFFSHORE...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO FORM. HEED THE DIRECTIONS OF YOUR
LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AS THEY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
INTO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. HOWEVER...A
LARGE EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THAT WILL POSE A HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FEET
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR INLETS. NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE POSE A SERIOUS HAZARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW