Wind Advisory 14, NWS Medford, OR

503 
WWUS76 KMFR 152132
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT FRI APR 15 2011

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-160300-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110416T0300Z/
MODOC COUNTY-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
232 PM PDT FRI APR 15 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

* TIMING: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
  BEFORE EASING.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
  LIKELY.

* IMPACTS: THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT TRAVELERS ALONG OREGON 
  HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

&&

$$

MAW

500 
WWUS76 KMFR 160311
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
811 PM PDT FRI APR 15 2011

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-160415-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110416T0300Z/
MODOC COUNTY-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
811 PM PDT FRI APR 15 2011

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW 20 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SUMMER RIM
AND PARTS OF HIGHWAY 31 NEAR SUMMER LAKE WHERE SOUTHWEST WIND 20
TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT FRI APR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N 135W...AND A WARM MOIST AIRMASS IS
OVERRUNNING THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN HAS SPREAD FROM THE COAST TO THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH
OVER 1 INCH JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE 50KT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT
295K...WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
FROM THE COAST RANGE TO THE CASCADES. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REACH 2 INCHES OVER THE COAST RANGE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...1 INCH OVER THE CASCADES...AND A HALF INCH OVER WESTERN
VALLEYS. A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL JUMP TO 6000 FEET AND HIGHER LATER THIS MORNING SO MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. I MAINTAINED QPF HIGHER THAN
MODELS INDICATE FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THE AFORMENTIONED STRONG
OVERRUNNING AND MODEL TENDENCY TO UNDERFORECAST IN THESE
SITUATIONS. SHIFTS WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF RAINFALL
OBSERVATIONS GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS...BUT FOR NOW
RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WITHIN THEIR BANKS IN THE NEAR-TERM.
SEE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THAT DETAILS EXPECTED RISES IN RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE WIND. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT
EAST TO PRIMARILY LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE FROM 11AM
UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT WEAKEN. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR MASS
TO THE NORTH AND THE WARM AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE OREGON COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUDY
START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND BUT
ONLY LIGHT QPF. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST PLACES. THE FRONT WILL BECOME ACTIVE
AGAIN IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR SOUTH OF ROSEBURG...FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
CURRY...JOSEPHINE...AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IN
GENERAL...SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS CLOUDY AND WET MOST PLACES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN FOR THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ABOVE 5000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...THOUGH THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS WET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BACK
TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT ANY LARGE WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT WESTERN VALLEY
TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE EAST
SIDE...THOUGH MORNING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT KLAMATH FALLS AS
A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THAT AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
IMPACT COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EAST SIDE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
649 AM PDT THU APR 14 2011

ORZ024>026-141500-
EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
649 AM PDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALL TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.