Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Miami, FL

537 
WWUS52 KMFL 151127
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FLC021-043-051-151145-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110515T1145Z/
HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-COLLIER FL-
727 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER...SOUTHEASTERN GLADES AND CENTRAL HENDRY
COUNTIES...

AT 725 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND NICKLE SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN 
TO DEVILS GARDEN TO BUNKER HILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE 
STORMS ARE MOVING INTO MOORE HAVEN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 2640 8141 2671 8139 2693 8136 2696 8107
      2692 8107 2693 8110 2689 8111 2685 8109
      2682 8105 2681 8095 2664 8097 2632 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1126Z 270DEG 25KT 2688 8117 2664 8119
          2641 8129

$$

GREGORIA

770 
WWUS52 KMFL 151144
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FLC021-043-051-151200-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110515T1145Z/
HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-COLLIER FL-
744 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER...
SOUTHEASTERN GLADES AND CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 AM
EDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 AM EDT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY 
WINDS TO 45 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2640 8141 2671 8139 2693 8136 2696 8107
      2692 8107 2693 8110 2689 8111 2685 8109
      2682 8105 2681 8095 2664 8097 2632 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 270DEG 25KT 2688 8104 2664 8106
          2641 8116

$$

GREGORIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE ALREADY SENT TO RAISE POPS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS, AND TO INCLUDE HAIL/WIND THREAT IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011/

..STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
GULF WATERS, AND MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLUGGISHLY ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THE ATMOSPHERE BY MIDDAY WILL BE PRIME FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG, MODEST SHEAR, AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9K FT AGL. H5 TEMPS WILL ALSO BE FROM
-10C TO -12C. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY
BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND THE CLIMO NORM. A VORT MAX CROSSING
THE AREA COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LATER
TODAY. LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR EXPERIENCING THESE
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL, IS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST SECTIONS.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS. MONDAY SHOULD BE
LESS ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED (AND POTENTIALLY STRONG) STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND EAST. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD AGAIN BE STRONG.

DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE WARMING RESUMES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
GULF WATERS MAY APPROACH KAPF AROUND 12Z. AT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL 17Z OR
LATER, ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO CARRY VCSH AFTER 12Z-14Z, AND THEN
VCTS AFTER 17Z. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
OF THE SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER TODAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY EAST.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE WATERS TODAY...WITH
A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK,
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST.

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT IN THE SHORT TERM, BEFORE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  68  86  70 / 50 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  68  87  73 / 50 30 30 20
MIAMI            88  71  87  73 / 50 30 20 20
NAPLES           87  67  85  68 / 40 10 20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-160400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CONTAINING STRONG
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

HAIL: QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST AND A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHEN STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
601 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FLZ069-070-151100-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-
601 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 700 AM EDT

* AT 557 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 29...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE UP TO HALF INCH SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2629 8156 2608 8120 2590 8152 2600 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 215DEG 14KT 2601 8156

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
629 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FLZ063-066-069-070-151145-
HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-
629 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN GLADES COUNTY
  WESTERN HENDRY COUNTY
  WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 745 AM EDT

* AT 626 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF LAKE PLACID TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARCO ISLAND...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  NAPLES...
  EAST NAPLES...
  GOLDEN GATE...
  BELLE MEADE...
  WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
  CAPE ROMANO...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2582 8126 2582 8137 2588 8148 2583 8153
      2589 8155 2589 8169 2587 8166 2584 8168
      2609 8181 2633 8185 2632 8167 2642 8167
      2643 8157 2703 8157 2704 8128 2712 8127
      2713 8117 2721 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1028Z 271DEG 14KT 2739 8158 2588 8182

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FLZ063-066-069-070-151145-
HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  GLADES COUNTY
  HENDRY COUNTY
  COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 745 AM EDT

* AT 646 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
  WEST OF VENUS TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  BIG CORKSCREW ISLAND...
  LA BELLE...
  AVE MARIA...
  IMMOKALEE..
  PALMDALE...
  ORTONA...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM LA BELLE
TO IMMOKALEE...AS WELL AS ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 T0 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2720 8094 2704 8094 2705 8098 2698 8107
      2689 8111 2682 8105 2681 8096 2588 8101
      2586 8154 2589 8155 2590 8165 2586 8170
      2600 8177 2642 8167 2643 8157 2703 8157
      2704 8128 2712 8127 2713 8117 2722 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 270DEG 25KT 2702 8148 2593 8160

GREGORIA