Wind Advisory 10, NWS Memphis, TN

393 
WWUS74 KMEG 062104
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE RESULT IS GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ007-
010-070000-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110407T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
TUNICA-COAHOMA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...TUNICA...CLARKSDALE
404 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 
  35 AND 40 MPH. 

* TIMING: FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

* IMPACTS: DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST ROADS WILL 
  BE DIFFICULT. BOATERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING 
  ONTO AREA LAKES AND RIVERS. TRASH CANS... LAWN FURNITURE...AND 
  OTHER LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS ARE SUBJECT TO BLOW 
  AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CCD

411 
WWUS74 KMEG 070007
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALOWED TO EXPIRE...


ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ007-
010-070115-
/O.EXP.KMEG.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110407T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
TUNICA-COAHOMA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...TUNICA...CLARKSDALE
707 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES THIS EVENING. WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 90 DEGREES AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. TEMPS ARE AROUND 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE DELTA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
EAST OF THE RIVER THOUGH FUEL MOISTURES ARE ELEVATED FROM
YESTERDAYS RAIN SO THE FIRE DANGER THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALONG THE ALABAMA BORDER WILL BE THE COOLEST
TONIGHT SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT LONGER THERE. WILL GO WITH
MID AND UPPER 30S THERE ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FROST. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...A
LITTLE WARMER IN MEMPHIS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIVER AND AN ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S AND SINCE IT
WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOWS AS MOISTURE STEADILY RETURNS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK AROUND 60F AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S. AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES BY. THIS FEATURE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE
MILD...IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WITH WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOULD FEEL A LITTLE SUMMER LIKE WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON
THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH ON THE ECMWF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO
GO WITH A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD AND DRY TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE THOUGH THE GFS IS 6-12
HOURS FASTER. BASICALLY BROAD BRUSHED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE A POTENT FRONT SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 11 KTS BY 06/12Z AND
BECOME VERY WINDY/GUSTY AS WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-22 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 25-30 KTS AFTER 06/15Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  46  73  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
MKL  40  71  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
JBR  43  71  53  75 /   0   0   0  10
TUP  39  72  51  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
434 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

BORGHOFF