Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
533 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST TORNADO WARNING OF EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK JUST
ISSUED.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A BIG THREAT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MEMPHIS
METRO AREA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS BY 12Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER
AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH IN THE MORNING.
MODELS INDICATING FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON EXACT TRACK.
REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN TONIGHT/S IS THAT THE CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
BUT HELICITY WILL BE LESS AS THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FURTHER NORTH.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
TAF STIES THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
JBR/MEM BETWEEN 25/00-02Z...MKL BETWEEN 25/01-03Z...AND TUP
BETWEEN 25/03-05Z. VFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT MFVR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL VEER WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO BETWEEN 8-10KTS BY
MID/LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

CJC
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  43  49  37  65 / 100   0   0  10
MKL  43  47  30  63 / 100   0   0  10
JBR  39  46  34  62 / 100   0   0  10
TUP  51  55  35  68 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
915 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
915 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
A WARM FRONT TODAY NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY BORDERS AND WITH
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH CAN
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING MORE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
559 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N HAYTI               36.35N 89.75W
02/24/2011                   PEMISCOT           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLES PUSHED OFF ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF I-55
            AND HWY A 3 MILES EAST OF WARDELL

&&

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHEATLEY                34.92N 91.11W
02/24/2011                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30 FOOT TALL TREE BLOWN OVER...TOP OF A PINE TREE
            MISSING...POWER OUT

&&

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHEATLEY                34.92N 91.11W
02/24/2011                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30 FOOT TALL TREE BLOWN OVER...TOP OF A PINE TREE
            MISSING...POWER OUT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTE
            78 AND US-70

&&

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORNING                 36.41N 90.59W
02/24/2011                   CLAY               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3RD STREET...LAUREL STREET...AND CRAFTON STREET CLOSED BY
            FLOODING. SOME SANDBAGGING OCCURRING NEAR HOMES.

&&

CJC