River Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

925 
WGUS84 KMEG 020138
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
738 PM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE 
RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC095-021320-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110102T1320Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.110101T1640Z.110101T2115Z.110102T0720Z.NO/
738 PM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER  AT BIGBEE
* UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
* AT 06 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 14.2 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER PORTIONS OF HOOD ROAD AND 
  EXTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING

$$

MSC095-020208-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110102T2252Z/
/AMYM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
738 PM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR AMORY
* AT 03 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 19.5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TOMORROW
* AT 23.0 FEET...MOST LOW LAND AND FARM LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS 
  FLOODED. EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER 
  GROUND

$$

MSC087-095-030137-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0003.110102T0730Z-110106T0600Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110102T0730Z.110104T0000Z.110106T0000Z.NO/
738 PM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 07 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 17.2 FEET MONDAY EVENING
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.2 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING.THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER AIRBASE ROAD ON THE WEST BANK
  OF THE RIVER

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
503 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011/

RAIN EVENT WAS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
DISCUSSION TIME. 3 AM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EASTERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MS.
MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE HAD MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST... EXTENDING
FROM EAST CENTRAL MS INTO NORTH CENTRAL AL. OVER THE MIDSOUTH...
POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED AS FAR WEST AS THE MS
RIVER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAVING EXITED...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND TORNADO WATCHES WERE CANCELLED EARLY.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SPLIT AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...BECOMING CONFLUENT
IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOLLOWING
THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDSOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW... OPENING THE DOOR FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST... BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
DEAMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY SUNDAY...TAKING THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROF OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN AT KMKL AND KTUP FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS
-SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND
10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 4-6 KTS AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  46  27  43  26 /  10   0   0   0
MKL  45  23  40  19 /  20   0   0   0
JBR  41  24  39  22 /   0   0   0   0
TUP  52  27  46  23 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
313 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB