Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Memphis, TN

674 
WGUS74 KMEG 041925
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

TNC039-071-041936-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110404T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR TN-HARDIN TN-
225 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR HARDIN AND DECATUR
COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3549 8797 3546 8804 3543 8803 3542 8797
      3539 8797 3538 8802 3531 8801 3530 8798
      3504 8799 3502 8836 3542 8835 3542 8824
      3555 8819 3585 8816 3586 8804 3581 8796
      3573 8802 3561 8802 3555 8797

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/

UPDATE...
FRONTAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS SHOULD HAVE
VERY SMALL CHANGES IF ANY AT ALL.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE. STORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
INDICATE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 PM. RADAR TIMING
SUGGESTS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.

WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE 20 TO 30
MPH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING. TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/

DISCUSSION...

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

INCREDIBLY WARM AND WINDY WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WERE OCCURRING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH REPORTED IN SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOWER
AND MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID
60S. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST MO...NORTHWEST AR AND
SOUTHEAST OK ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHWEST AR. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REMAINED CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION
OCCURRING. THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP OF OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES
C AT 800 MB.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTH MS AND MUCH OF WEST TN
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...AND EAST AR AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL IN A SLIGHT RISK. THIS LOOKS GOOD AND IN LINE WITH
EARLIER THINKING. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE CAP ERODES THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY BECOME
LINEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS INDICATED NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER MUCAPE WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 925 MB WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN
60 AND 65 KTS. 0-1 KM SR HELICITY WITH RANGE BETWEEN 250 AND 400
M2/S2 WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THINK INTENSE AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WITH
LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY. BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE MAY
PRODUCE EMBEDDED TORNADOES. ALSO CAN NOT FEW OUT A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE COMMON...LOCALLY MORE...AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH READINGS NEAR 50 DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING STRONG AND GUSTY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

MUCH CALMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST TO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...MUCH OF WEST TN...AND
PART OF NORTHEAST MS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON THE FROST POTENTIAL WITH
WINDS POTENTIALLY REMAINING UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST AT A MINIMUM.
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING...THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING OR
FROST ADVISORY AND LET THE DAYSHIFT EXAMINE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY MID-WEEK...WARMER WEATHER AND SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE MIDSOUTH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A
VERY NICE DAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WARM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN SHORT TERM THREAT IS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED TEMPO GROUP TO 40 KNOTS FOR TUP/MKL AND MEM...HOWEVER
WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY HIGHER IN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
20Z AT MKL AND 22Z AT TUP.

COLD FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER BEFORE CEILINGS IMPROVE.

 BELLES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  37  62  45 / 100  10   0   0
MKL  75  33  60  39 / 100  10   0   0
JBR  71  34  62  41 / 100  10   0   0
TUP  79  37  61  37 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR PHILLIPS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
523 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE MODERATE RISK
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND TUPELO. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM RIPLEY
TO UNION CITY. IN ADDITION...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EAST
ARKANSAS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
THE CITY OF JONESBORO.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES COMMON WITH LOCALLY
MORE IN SOME SPOTS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL
LINE THAT WILL INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. BY LATE
MORNING...AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE
REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY 7 PM.

VERY STRONG AND GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DOWNED TREE LIMBS
AND POWER OUTAGES IN SOME LOCATIONS. REFERENCE THE LATEST WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...INTO
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS IN CASE A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE
WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...INTO
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS IN CASE A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE
WARNING IS ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

JCL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE HERNANDO           34.86N 89.95W
04/04/2011  E70.00 MPH       DESOTO             MS   STORM CHASER

            ALSO...WALL CLOUD WITH SOME ROTATION NEAR HWY 51 NE OF
            HERNANDO.

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GERMANTOWN          35.09N 89.84W
04/04/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT IN CLARK TOWER.

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W GERMANTOWN          35.09N 89.83W
04/04/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT ST FRANCIS HOSPITAL ON PARK AVENUE.
            ALSO BUILDING DAMAGE...WITH SHREDDED INSULATION.

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S LAKELAND            35.21N 89.73W
04/04/2011  E65.00 MPH       SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

1205 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 W OLIVE BRANCH        34.95N 89.90W
04/04/2011                   DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERE FENCE DAMEAGE FROM WIND. WINDS ROTATING WHEN
            SQUALL HIT.

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE SENATOBIA         34.65N 89.87W
04/04/2011                   TATE               MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN AND LAWN FURNITURE THROW. 1 MILE NORTH OF
            INTERSECTION OF HWY 305 AND HWY 4.

1215 PM     HAIL             5 W RIPLEY              34.73N 89.03W
04/04/2011  E0.88 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1237 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW CORDOVA           35.13N 89.86W
04/04/2011                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AWNING BLOWN OFF OF THE SIDE OF HAMPTON INN AT HUMPHREYS
            AND WALNUT GROVE ROAD.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLISTON               35.16N 89.38W
04/04/2011                   FAYETTE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TO 4 INCH LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AND BLOWN ACROSS HWY 195 IN
            WILLISTON.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE MACON             35.16N 89.47W
04/04/2011                   FAYETTE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 6 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN AND BLOWN ACROSS HWY 193 JUST
            EAST OF MACON. WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKLAND                 35.22N 89.51W
04/04/2011                   FAYETTE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TO 3 INCH LIMBS DOWN...FLAG POLE BLOWN OVER IN OAKLAND.

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     18 ENE OAKLAND          35.32N 89.22W
04/04/2011                   FAYETTE            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON INA ROAD AND EAST SIDE DRIVE...DAMAGE TO HOUSES

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKLAND                 35.22N 89.51W
04/04/2011                   FAYETTE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF AND STEEPLE DAMAGE TO A CHURCH IN OAKLAND.

&&

RRH