Red Flag Warning 95, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

572 
WWUS84 KMAF 072020
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15
PERCENT OR LESS...AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR REEVES
COUNTY AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND
STOCKTON AND MARFA PLATEAUS...

.A DRYLINE WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARM AND DRY AIR...WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS REEVES COUNTY AND
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND STOCKTON AND MARFA
PLATEAUS...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TXZ058-074-075-080-080000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0095.000000T0000Z-111108T0000Z/
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-MARFA PLATEAU-
220 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR REEVES COUNTY AND THE UPPER TRANS 
PECOS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND STOCKTON AND MARFA PLATEAUS...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD.  OUTDOOR BURNING
  IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS.  ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF IT WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA THIS
TODAY AND ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA.  THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN BEFORE A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH BUT COULD BE A WIND
PRODUCER.

LOW CLOUDS FLOWING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  DEWPTS ON
THE INCREASE ... ALSO INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM
THE SW.  CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AREA HAS BEEN ALL YEAR IT IS
UNUSUAL TO HAVE 60 DEWPTS BUT WE HAVE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE TRANS PECOS WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST.  AFRAID THIS MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY SHUNTED EAST
TODAY AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BE
ABLE TO HOLD ONTO DECENT MOISTURE.  SHOULD GET SOME MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT.  POSITION OF THE DRYLINE DECIDE WHERE RAIN BEGINS.  AS OF
EARLY MORNING THE RICHER MOISTURE HAD PUSHED BACK ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND MOST OF THE TRANS PECOS.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS DRYLINE
SHOULD PUSH EAST TO NEAR A GAIL TO BAKERSFIELD LINE.  HOW FAR THIS
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT WILL DETERMINE WHO RECEIVES RAIN AND
WHO DOES NOT... BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK AS FAR AS
MIDLAND AND ODESSA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  MODEL QPF DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPS ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS DURING THE EVENING.  THE REGION REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA OVER CENTRAL TEXAS... BUT THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN/WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER THIS TONIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT
SWEEPING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BRISK WEST WIND IN ITS WAKE
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY IT WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.  HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS.  TEMPERATURES WARM
FRIDAY BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. 20 FT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND WILL
INCREASE TO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...MARFA
PLATEAU...AND ADJACENT TRANS PECOS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS GENERAL
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THIS
LOCATION...YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 12-15 PCT RANGE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES...20 FT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...LOW RH...AND ONGOING DROUGHT/HIGH FIRE DANGER SHOULD BRING A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO THESE LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING...EFFECTIVE FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CST. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING RH/S TO FALL INTO THE TEENS DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 FT WINDS WILL BE IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING ELEVATED/NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IN A SUSTAINED RED FLAG EVENT IS CURRENTLY LOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              80  44  64  33  /  30  40  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                76  36  64  29  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  81  50  72  39  /  10  30   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  45  68  33  /  10  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  31  54  29  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   73  36  62  30  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   73  28  60  23  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  41  64  32  /  10  30  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  41  64  34  /  10  30   0   0
WINK TX                    83  40  66  33  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS.

&&

21/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-081100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
449 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011 /349 AM MST MON NOV 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GAIL...BIG SPRING...BIG LAKE LINE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAIN.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE MARFA PLATEAU...AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND