River Flood Warning 146, NWS St. Louis, MO

363 
WGUS83 KLSX 270133
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
832 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR 

      TAYLOR 

.THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT REGARDING THE FLOODING EVENTS WHICH
AFFECTED THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC127-270202-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-110528T0900Z/
/TAYM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
832 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR.
* AT 7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9.2 FEET AND IS
  FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 7.0 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     05/27  05/28  05/29  05/30  05/31

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           9.5    9.14       9.1    7.0    4.1    2.5    2.0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/346 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011/

SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER ST LOUIS AS OF 08Z...WITH PLENTY OF WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS ACTIVITY PLUS THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST WITH THE PCPN SLOWLY COMING TO AN END BY THIS
EVENING. STILL HAVE A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...SO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A BIT CHILLY AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL AS SYSTEM WEAKENS
AND MOVES AWAY FROM AREA. SO HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BY TONIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...SO CHILLY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH PLENTY OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND LIGHT WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FOR NOW LEFT OUT MENTION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE
THINGS DRY OUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. COVERAGE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY SO
DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT...INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY SATURDAY...AND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BEYOND THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/1219 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011/

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS BLANKETED THE REGION WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
BECOME QUITE SPOTTY AND ONLY EXPECTING VERY LIGHT -RA OR SPRIKLES
ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR AND MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH BASE HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISING...AND KCOU AND KUIN RISING TO VFR BETWEEN 20-23Z AND EARLY
EVENING IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. NOTE THIS TREND IS NEAR THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CLIMO...HOWEVER THE NAM MODEL
WOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER
CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG AND HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL STRATOCU BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR STRATUS. CIG HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN MVFR BUT SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING ABOVE
2000 FT BETWEEN 20-21Z AND BECOMING VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER
CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG AND HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL STRATOCU BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
722 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
722 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
TODAY. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TES