Gale Watch 21, NWS Los Angeles, CA

401 
WHUS76 KLOX 280418
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
918 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PZZ655-281230-
/O.EXT.KLOX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-110528T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KLOX.GL.A.0021.110528T2200Z-110530T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KLOX.GL.W.0019.110528T2200Z-110529T1000Z/
INNER WATERS FROM POINT MUGU TO SAN MATEO PT. CA INCLUDING SANTA
CATALINA AND SANTA BARBARA ISLANDS-
918 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT
SATURDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20
  TO 30 KNOTS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...WITH
  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. 

* SEAS: STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET WITH A DOMINANT
  PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ670-673-676-281230-
/O.CON.KLOX.GL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110530T1000Z/
WATERS FROM PT. PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO PT. ARGUELLO AND WESTWARD
60 NM-
WATERS FROM PT. ARGUELLO TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND CA AND WESTWARD
60 NM INCLUDING SAN MIGUEL AND SANTA ROSA ISLANDS-
OUTER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO
60 NM OFFSHORE INCLUDING SAN NICOLAS ISLAND-
918 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40
  KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS MAY
  DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
  MORNING HOURS.

* SEAS: COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FT WITH
  A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS ON SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ650-281230-
/O.CON.KLOX.GL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110530T1000Z/
EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL FROM PT. CONCEPTION TO PT. MUGU
INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS-
918 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
  AS 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
  STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEST PORTION. THE WINDS MAY
  DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
  MORNING HOURS.

* SEAS: STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WITH A DOMINANT
  PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY SUNDAY AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WARMER WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS IN SOME PLACES
TODAY WAS A PICTURE PERFECT DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL, THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE THE TROF MOVES IN AND REALLY COOLS
THINGS OFF SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SAME AREAS, WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ALONG THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY COASTS.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
SUNDAY TROF. IT'S A SUBTLE CHANGE BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LIMITING THE NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR SUNDAY MORNING. THERE'S
STILL A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES,
BUT THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SUGGESTING ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO KEEP CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL DRIZZLE MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LA COUNTY. THE MAJOR EXCEPTION BEING THE
GRAPEVINE AREA NEAR THE KERN COUNTY LINE WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
AND A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS UP THE NORTH FACING SLOPES. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FALLING RAPIDLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN
IT'S DEPICTION OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET NEAR THE GRAPEVINE SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER INCREASING POPS IN THAT AREA.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON TAP, POSSIBLY EVEN WINDIER THAN
SATURDAY. EARLIER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AND
AREAL COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL ZONES
AS WELL. ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROF PASSES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE LEE OF THE
MTNS COMBINES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRETTY MUCH WIPE OUT ANY
LINGERING MORNING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS
THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, IN SOME AREAS 15-25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SAT. COOLER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, THOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OFFSET SOME OF THIS COOLING SO STILL
SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE BURST OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE VENTURA/LA VALLEYS WHICH MAY YIELD SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
THERE AND ACROSS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROF AND TEMPS WARM UP BACK TO
NEAR NORMALS. DO NOT EXPECT THE MARINE LYR TO REFORM YET SO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY SHOWING ANOTHER TROF DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WA/OR COAST
WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SRN CA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK, ESPECIALLY INLAND. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A
SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
THE PAC NW TROF. MODELS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH IT BUT SO FAR THAT'S ABOUT ALL. SO FOR NOW I'VE INDICATED
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREAS WED INTO THU IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COASTAL MARINE LYR COVERAGE, MAINLY VENTURA COUNTY
SOUTH.

BEYOND WED, THE MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
FASTER PUSHING THE TROF INLAND THROUGH NRN CALIFORNIA THAN THE GFS.
NEITHER MODEL BRINGS ANY PRECIP THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT THE EC SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN AN EARLIER COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG WEST AFTER 28/21Z WHILE MODERATE
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAPPING MARINE
INVERSION AND UNORGANIZED MARINE LAYER WITH TOPS BETWEEN 1.4-3.0KFT
AND LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF LA COUNTY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
27/04Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN 27/04-27/20Z AND THEN
MODERATE ONSHORE THEREAFTER.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...WOFFORD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-281300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN FACT...THE GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ACROSS THE DESERTS. OTHER AREAS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INCLUDE THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.

ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL ALSO HELP TO GENERATE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS NEAR SHORE.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND COULD EXTEND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN
FACT...THE GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND
ACROSS THE DESERTS. OTHER AREAS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INCLUDE THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.

ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THOMPSON