Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM LEE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND...AND IS NOW LOCATED
DUE WEST OF KBTR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE BEING
PULLED IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
IN PLACE...WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. THESE SQUALLS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT THROUGH 06Z. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST OF THE REGION...LEADING TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AT KMCB...KBTR...AND KHUM BETWEEN 12-18Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011/

SHORT TERM...
17
NOT A LOT OF MOVEMENT IN LEE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADOES AND COASTAL FLOODING. UNTIL
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EASE OFF...COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A PROBLEM WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ASTRO TIDES ARE COMING OUT
OF SPRING TIDE CYCLE AND SO EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THE LAST. THIS SHOULD HELP A LITTLE.

LOOKING AT HOW TO GET LEE TO MOVE IS GETTING INTERESTING. BELIEVE
THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SMALLER
MESH NAM SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES TRY TO MOVE A LARGE MASS
OF SH/TS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. BUT IT WANTS TO LEAVE LEE IN TACT AND MOVE IT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SEND THIS SAME
MASS OF SH/TS UP THE FRONTAL AXIS BUT THEY INSIST THIS MASS IS OLD
LEE. THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOULD WIN OUT HERE AS LEE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE NE AND SLOWS AROUND THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWS AND STALLS FROM THE NE GULF TO NEAR THE YUCATAN.
THIS IS WHERE THE NAM SOLUTIONS IS GETTING CONFUSED. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE IT NNE WHILE THE NAM INSISTS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LEE.
WILL SIMPLY DEAL WITH ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME AND LEAVE THE
EXTENDED(8 DAYS OUT) ALONE FOR NOW.

AVIATION...

RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
THROUGH 00Z THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. AS THE
CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

MARINE...
NO REAL CHANGES IN THINKING. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS. WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY THEN
EASE THROUGH WED TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  74  80  62 / 100  90  80  20
BTR  82  74  80  62 / 100  90  70   0
ASD  82  75  80  63 / 100  90  80  20
MSY  82  77  80  65 / 100  90  60  10
GPT  82  76  82  65 / 100  90  80  20
PQL  82  76  82  67 / 100  90  80  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
501 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-052215-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
501 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FOR MORE
DETAILED HAZARD INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL HURRICANE
STATEMENTS.

THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CONVENT TO BATON ROUGE TO ST. FRANCISVILLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY IN ANTICIPATION
OF CONTINUED FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AS WELL AS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS OUTSIDE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...IN AREAS AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BAYS.

A FEW AREA RIVERS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT AS WATER FROM THE
HEAVY RAINS DRAINS INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE ALREADY NEAR
BANK FULL. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AS TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS MONDAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE LOWERED. FOR MORE DETAILED HAZARD
INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THEN INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...IN AREAS AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BAYS
THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. RIVER
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT AS WATER FROM HEAVY
RAINS DRAINS INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE ALREADY NEAR BANK
FULL. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVATED THROUGH MONDAY.

95/DM