Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...
17
NOT A LOT OF MOVEMENT IN LEE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADOES AND COASTAL FLOODING. UNTIL
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS EASE OFF...COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A PROBLEM WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ASTRO TIDES ARE COMING OUT
OF SPRING TIDE CYCLE AND SO EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THE LAST. THIS SHOULD HELP A LITTLE.

LOOKING AT HOW TO GET LEE TO MOVE IS GETTING INTERESTING. BELIEVE
THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SMALLER
MESH NAM SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES TRY TO MOVE A LARGE MASS
OF SH/TS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. BUT IT WANTS TO LEAVE LEE IN TACT AND MOVE IT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SEND THIS SAME
MASS OF SH/TS UP THE FRONTAL AXIS BUT THEY INSIST THIS MASS IS OLD
LEE. THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOULD WIN OUT HERE AS LEE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE NE AND SLOWS AROUND THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWS AND STALLS FROM THE NE GULF TO NEAR THE YUCATAN.
THIS IS WHERE THE NAM SOLUTIONS IS GETTING CONFUSED. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT
AND MOVE IT NNE WHILE THE NAM INSISTS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LEE.
WILL SIMPLY DEAL WITH ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME AND LEAVE THE
EXTENDED(8 DAYS OUT) ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
THROUGH 00Z THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. AS THE
CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL CHANGES IN THINKING. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS. WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY THEN
EASE THROUGH WED TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  74  80  62 / 100  90  80  20
BTR  82  74  80  62 / 100  90  70   0
ASD  82  75  80  63 / 100  90  80  20
MSY  82  77  80  65 / 100  90  60  10
GPT  82  76  82  65 / 100  90  80  20
PQL  82  76  82  67 / 100  90  80  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
528 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-051030-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
528 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FOR MORE DETAILED HAZARD
INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS.

THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES ERRATICALLY NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN
ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS OUTSIDE HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEES...IN AREAS AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AS TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS
MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE LOWERED. FOR MORE
DETAILED HAZARD INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL HURRICANE
STATEMENTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN
ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THEN INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...IN AREAS AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BAYS
THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVATED THROUGH MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
656 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 AM     TROPICAL STORM   LAKEFRONT AIRPORT       30.04N 90.03W
09/04/2011                   ORLEANS            LA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            LAKEFRONT REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40
            KNOTS WITH A PEAK GUST OF 50 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
            SQUALL IN TROPICAL STORM LEE.

&&

CBANNAN